Possibly the single best reason for Britain’s continued membership of the European Union (EU) is that the EU prevents wars.
Following war between France and Germany three times in 70 years (arguably four), the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was founded shortly after World War 2 by six nations, making them industrially and economically inter-dependent. It was intended to make war “not only unthinkable but materially impossible”. This principle paved the way for the formation of the EEC and then the EU, and it has worked.
It is not the case that, because the last war amongst Western European nations was a long time ago, the EU has moved on and that purpose has ceased to have meaning. It is precisely because such a war is so distant in time that the EU is clearly working and still fulfilling the function of making it impossible.
If we are tempted to think that war between major economic powers or “modern” nations today is very unlikely and not a possibility we need to take seriously, who thought eastern/middle Europe would fall apart so violently and completely in the last two decades? And think of Japan, who fought on the same side as Britain in World War 1, but just 21 years later was a principal enemy and fought against Britain in World War 2.
We may appear to have comfortable, stable, safe lives; but look a little further and you will see the world is far more unstable and dangerous than it has ever been. Things can change dramatically and very quickly, and the direction from which war might come is unpredictable.
War has almost always been a facet of British life, not one year has passed since 1914 that Britain has not been involved in armed conflict somewhere. Including today.
Concerns about migration or our current economic wellbeing seem pretty much irrelevant to a decision over our membership of the EU, compared to opening up the possibility of wars in Europe. We all know the EU has, over the last 20 years, turned into a body representing capital, thus promoting profiteering and privatisation, of which the secretive TTIP deal is just the latest manifestation. But these are things a socialist UK Government can fix, co-operating with others of like mind.
21 years from now puts my youngest Niece at about 40 years old, that’s plenty of time for war to return to Europe. It’s not such a distant possibility, if we pave the way by leaving the EU.
It is more important to me to avoid risking my Niece, her children and countless millions others facing the tragedy and horror of war than worrying about transitory issues that can be solved if there is a will.
Monday, April 18, 2016
The EU Referendum: This is Now Getting Urgent - by Peter Rowlands
The recent poll giving 'Leave' a lead (Opinium, Observer, April 3rd), backed up by recent poll averages showing only a small two point lead for 'Remain', means that there is now a distinct possibility that Leave could carry the day, and Brexit could happen. This is accentuated by the poll also demonstrating that the younger, more pro-EU electorate is less likely to vote than the older, more anti-EU electorate.
Research (GQRR for the Fabians, Independent, April 3rd) shows that Labour voters could make a crucial difference, but only if Jeremy Corbyn (JC) gives a strong lead in encouraging them to vote. It has been suggested that there will be pressure on him to do this, as he has up till now not taken a strong position, although he has backed the rather lacklustre Labour campaign to remain, supported by virtually all MPs and without much sign of opposition within the wider membership.
The problem is - and in this JC is representative of the views of the left - that, while the traditional opposition to the EU has diminished significantly, as leaving seemed an increasingly unviable option, it has not been replaced by any notable enthusiasm for the EU, or for what a reformed left inclined EU could become. In practice, this outlook has been passive and abstentionist. It is, I believe, quite wrong. At best it can only be justified by asserting that from a left point of view there is not likely to be any serious difference between leaving or remaining. However, there has not , since 1975, been a time at which such views were likely to have had any significant consequences, even if we had held a referendum on the EU constitution.
This has now fundamentally changed. If, as appears to be the case, Labour votes, and JC calling for them, are crucial to winning for Remain, then it is vital that this happens. The only valid argument against this is to demonstrate that there is no particular disadvantage for the left in leaving, or advantage in staying in. I do not believe that any such arguments can be credibly made, and will try and explain why.
While there is still a residual left anti EU tradition the overwhelming impetus for Leave has come from the populist/nationalist right in UKIP, the Tory right and the right-wing media. Unlike 1975, there is little left visibility, and a positive vote for Leave would represent a significant victory for forces of the right to the right of the present government (yes, that is possible) who would celebrate with a distasteful orgy of flag waving imperial/wartime nostalgia to be followed by the serious business of attacking the working class by removing all those EU benefits that stood in the way of ’labour flexibility’. As the CBI predicts, there could be job losses of almost a million and a 5% reduction in GDP by 2020 (speech by CBI director, March 21st, based on research by PWC). Foreign owned firms (that includes all vehicle manufacturers) could relocate to the EU to avoid tariffs. But the appeal to the ‘national interest’ would be powerful, and would be likely to adversely affect the strength of and support for the Labour Party and wider labour movement for some time. It is also the case that Brexit could significantly weaken the EU and lead to its possible break up, with neo-fascist parties such as the French National Front becoming more dominant.
Even if no proposals for reform were made, Remain would almost certainly be a better proposition than the scenario just painted, with social and employment rights probably more secure and high levels of unemployment probably avoided. But of course the EU, which has in the last 20 years moved in a more neoliberal direction, needs significant reform. Labour must highlight the things that Cameron and most of the Remain camp are not interested in – more democracy for the EU Parliament, an extension of employment and social rights, positive policies for growth and employment and greater control over big business.
It cannot be denied that there are enormous problems in the EU, even without the current refugee crisis, mainly stemming from the Euro, and these must be overcome so that the peripheral countries are not condemned to depression and unemployment in perpetuity. But there are plenty of parties in the EU that are committed to change, and to the sorts of policies outlined above. This is to some extent true of the established social democratic parties, grouped mainly within the umbrella Party of European Socialists, most of which succumbed to some degree of neoliberalism in the 90s, like New Labour, but some of which have since moved back to more left wing positions, and the newer parties of the left, grouped mainly within the umbrella Party of the European Left, which include not only new parties like Podemos and Syriza but more established parties such as Die Linke in Germany. With the exception of some of the traditional Communist parties almost all of these parties favour remaining in a reformed EU rather than leaving, and have developed policies accordingly.
We should emphatically join them. It is not so much a question of international solidarity, but because it is the right, indeed the only way to go.There is unlikely to be any basis for left advance in an independent UK. Nationalism and global capital will always be stronger. But the EU is potentially big and strong enough to allow real advances for the left. It may not happen, but there is no other way forward.
It would therefore be a monumental disaster for the left if that possibility was summarily cut short by a win for Leave on June 23rd. We must campaign strongly to see that that does not happen. Come on Jeremy, you know it makes sense!
This article also appears on Left Futures.
Research (GQRR for the Fabians, Independent, April 3rd) shows that Labour voters could make a crucial difference, but only if Jeremy Corbyn (JC) gives a strong lead in encouraging them to vote. It has been suggested that there will be pressure on him to do this, as he has up till now not taken a strong position, although he has backed the rather lacklustre Labour campaign to remain, supported by virtually all MPs and without much sign of opposition within the wider membership.
The problem is - and in this JC is representative of the views of the left - that, while the traditional opposition to the EU has diminished significantly, as leaving seemed an increasingly unviable option, it has not been replaced by any notable enthusiasm for the EU, or for what a reformed left inclined EU could become. In practice, this outlook has been passive and abstentionist. It is, I believe, quite wrong. At best it can only be justified by asserting that from a left point of view there is not likely to be any serious difference between leaving or remaining. However, there has not , since 1975, been a time at which such views were likely to have had any significant consequences, even if we had held a referendum on the EU constitution.
This has now fundamentally changed. If, as appears to be the case, Labour votes, and JC calling for them, are crucial to winning for Remain, then it is vital that this happens. The only valid argument against this is to demonstrate that there is no particular disadvantage for the left in leaving, or advantage in staying in. I do not believe that any such arguments can be credibly made, and will try and explain why.
While there is still a residual left anti EU tradition the overwhelming impetus for Leave has come from the populist/nationalist right in UKIP, the Tory right and the right-wing media. Unlike 1975, there is little left visibility, and a positive vote for Leave would represent a significant victory for forces of the right to the right of the present government (yes, that is possible) who would celebrate with a distasteful orgy of flag waving imperial/wartime nostalgia to be followed by the serious business of attacking the working class by removing all those EU benefits that stood in the way of ’labour flexibility’. As the CBI predicts, there could be job losses of almost a million and a 5% reduction in GDP by 2020 (speech by CBI director, March 21st, based on research by PWC). Foreign owned firms (that includes all vehicle manufacturers) could relocate to the EU to avoid tariffs. But the appeal to the ‘national interest’ would be powerful, and would be likely to adversely affect the strength of and support for the Labour Party and wider labour movement for some time. It is also the case that Brexit could significantly weaken the EU and lead to its possible break up, with neo-fascist parties such as the French National Front becoming more dominant.
Even if no proposals for reform were made, Remain would almost certainly be a better proposition than the scenario just painted, with social and employment rights probably more secure and high levels of unemployment probably avoided. But of course the EU, which has in the last 20 years moved in a more neoliberal direction, needs significant reform. Labour must highlight the things that Cameron and most of the Remain camp are not interested in – more democracy for the EU Parliament, an extension of employment and social rights, positive policies for growth and employment and greater control over big business.
It cannot be denied that there are enormous problems in the EU, even without the current refugee crisis, mainly stemming from the Euro, and these must be overcome so that the peripheral countries are not condemned to depression and unemployment in perpetuity. But there are plenty of parties in the EU that are committed to change, and to the sorts of policies outlined above. This is to some extent true of the established social democratic parties, grouped mainly within the umbrella Party of European Socialists, most of which succumbed to some degree of neoliberalism in the 90s, like New Labour, but some of which have since moved back to more left wing positions, and the newer parties of the left, grouped mainly within the umbrella Party of the European Left, which include not only new parties like Podemos and Syriza but more established parties such as Die Linke in Germany. With the exception of some of the traditional Communist parties almost all of these parties favour remaining in a reformed EU rather than leaving, and have developed policies accordingly.
We should emphatically join them. It is not so much a question of international solidarity, but because it is the right, indeed the only way to go.There is unlikely to be any basis for left advance in an independent UK. Nationalism and global capital will always be stronger. But the EU is potentially big and strong enough to allow real advances for the left. It may not happen, but there is no other way forward.
It would therefore be a monumental disaster for the left if that possibility was summarily cut short by a win for Leave on June 23rd. We must campaign strongly to see that that does not happen. Come on Jeremy, you know it makes sense!
This article also appears on Left Futures.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
The EU discussion at the WLG meeting on March 5th by Peter Rowlands
I could not make this, but thanks to Nick for producing a summary of the discussion. Fairly predictably this appeared to encompass most of the positions on the left, with a majority, seemingly without much enthusiasm, supporting IN on the grounds that BREXIT would disadvantage the left. This is true, but it is a negative position; few on the left now advocate BREXIT, but most share this negative attitude, including, I am sorry to say, JC himself.
I think this is all quite wrong. While there is much at fault with the EU it is not unreformable and we should seek to change it alongside our friends in the range of left and centre left parties in the EU, most of whom do want to remain in a reformed EU.
Indifference to the EU is wrong, but it is doubly so when faced with a referendum that polls show is rather close. If we wake up on June 24th and find that the Brexiteers have won we will only have ourselves to blame. There is a good left wing case for IN and I hope that Jeremy and John can make it in the coming months. Alan Johnson and the current Labour campaign certainly aren’t.
There is no future for an independent socialist UK. It is not possible. It probably wasn’t in 1983, it certainly isn’t today. We cannot ‘build Jerusalem in England’s green and pleasant land’. BREXIT would mean that Scotland would rejoin the EU anyway, and so would we in Wales if we had any sense, although the likelihood of a significant vote for UKIP in the forthcoming Assembly elections indicates that this is lacking in certain quarters.There would be a huge rise in unemployment as foreign firms relocated in the EU, big capitalism would name its terms and they wouldn’t be pleasant. The apparent regaining of sovereignty would in fact be the reverse, as there would be less real control over our affairs, but this would be waved away as the new Conservative /UKIP coalition took office ( with Boris as PM ) amid an orgy of distasteful nationalist and imperialist nostalgia. The right would be in the ascendant, but BREXIT would also help the not inconsiderable forces of the right in the EU, from the ‘respectable’ fascists of the French National Front to the real Nazi article in the shape of the appalling Jobbik and Golden Dawn. These people want to break up the EU and go back to the Europe of the 1930s. BREXIT could help them succeed.
There is surprisingly no mention in Nick’s account of the left in the EU, but it is in fact a substantial and growing force. Many of the social democratic parties, like Labour here, lost their way in the 1980s and moved to the neo liberal right, but partly as a result of that new parties of the left emerged, most successfully in Germany as Die Linke, but also in Finland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Spain, and more recently in Greece as Syriza and Spain again as Podemos. Most of the newer left parties do not want to leave the EU, although they are highly critical of it, and while most of the social democratic parties are still floundering they are in the main moving towards a more left wing approach.
The umbrella group representing the left parties increased its representation substantially in 2014, while the social democrats held their own. The big losses were by the conservative parties to the right wing populists like UKIP here and the French National Front.
Comrades are invited to have a look at the policies of the Party of the European Left, (Socialists and Communists), the Party of European Socialists, (social democratic parties) and the European Trade Union confederation. Policies generally favour an end to austerity and policies for growth and full employment, a renewed emphasis on ‘social Europe ‘with improved employment and social rights, greater democracy and transparency with more powers for the parliament, and increased curbs and controls on big business. (This is crucial. Huge global corporations can only be controlled by an entity the size of the EU. Contrast the treatment of errant banks by the UK and the US).These are the sorts of policies that Labour surely supports.
There are huge problems in the EU, mainly to do with the Euro, and heightened by the refugee crisis. But it still has the greatest concentration of left wing parties and support for what they stand for in the world, despite the dilution and distortion that many have undergone. It would be unthinkable to walk away. It is not just a question of international solidarity. It is a question of how we, the UK left, make progress. There is no possibility of an independent socialist UK. A socialist Europe, based on a reformed EU, is a possibility. BREXIT would have the effect of significantly reducing that possibility. We should therefore campaign strongly to remain.
I think this is all quite wrong. While there is much at fault with the EU it is not unreformable and we should seek to change it alongside our friends in the range of left and centre left parties in the EU, most of whom do want to remain in a reformed EU.
Indifference to the EU is wrong, but it is doubly so when faced with a referendum that polls show is rather close. If we wake up on June 24th and find that the Brexiteers have won we will only have ourselves to blame. There is a good left wing case for IN and I hope that Jeremy and John can make it in the coming months. Alan Johnson and the current Labour campaign certainly aren’t.
There is no future for an independent socialist UK. It is not possible. It probably wasn’t in 1983, it certainly isn’t today. We cannot ‘build Jerusalem in England’s green and pleasant land’. BREXIT would mean that Scotland would rejoin the EU anyway, and so would we in Wales if we had any sense, although the likelihood of a significant vote for UKIP in the forthcoming Assembly elections indicates that this is lacking in certain quarters.There would be a huge rise in unemployment as foreign firms relocated in the EU, big capitalism would name its terms and they wouldn’t be pleasant. The apparent regaining of sovereignty would in fact be the reverse, as there would be less real control over our affairs, but this would be waved away as the new Conservative /UKIP coalition took office ( with Boris as PM ) amid an orgy of distasteful nationalist and imperialist nostalgia. The right would be in the ascendant, but BREXIT would also help the not inconsiderable forces of the right in the EU, from the ‘respectable’ fascists of the French National Front to the real Nazi article in the shape of the appalling Jobbik and Golden Dawn. These people want to break up the EU and go back to the Europe of the 1930s. BREXIT could help them succeed.
There is surprisingly no mention in Nick’s account of the left in the EU, but it is in fact a substantial and growing force. Many of the social democratic parties, like Labour here, lost their way in the 1980s and moved to the neo liberal right, but partly as a result of that new parties of the left emerged, most successfully in Germany as Die Linke, but also in Finland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Spain, and more recently in Greece as Syriza and Spain again as Podemos. Most of the newer left parties do not want to leave the EU, although they are highly critical of it, and while most of the social democratic parties are still floundering they are in the main moving towards a more left wing approach.
The umbrella group representing the left parties increased its representation substantially in 2014, while the social democrats held their own. The big losses were by the conservative parties to the right wing populists like UKIP here and the French National Front.
Comrades are invited to have a look at the policies of the Party of the European Left, (Socialists and Communists), the Party of European Socialists, (social democratic parties) and the European Trade Union confederation. Policies generally favour an end to austerity and policies for growth and full employment, a renewed emphasis on ‘social Europe ‘with improved employment and social rights, greater democracy and transparency with more powers for the parliament, and increased curbs and controls on big business. (This is crucial. Huge global corporations can only be controlled by an entity the size of the EU. Contrast the treatment of errant banks by the UK and the US).These are the sorts of policies that Labour surely supports.
There are huge problems in the EU, mainly to do with the Euro, and heightened by the refugee crisis. But it still has the greatest concentration of left wing parties and support for what they stand for in the world, despite the dilution and distortion that many have undergone. It would be unthinkable to walk away. It is not just a question of international solidarity. It is a question of how we, the UK left, make progress. There is no possibility of an independent socialist UK. A socialist Europe, based on a reformed EU, is a possibility. BREXIT would have the effect of significantly reducing that possibility. We should therefore campaign strongly to remain.
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
The left and the EU referendum debate by Nick Davies
At the Welsh Labour Grassroots meeting on 5 March, there was a discussion on the stance socialists in Wales should adopt towards the EU referendum and the EU in general. A summary of that discussion is set out below, the purpose of which is to stimulate and develop future discussion.
One view was that the EU is fundamentally pro-capitalist and pro-privatisation of public services. It is also undemocratic to the extent that it is incapable of reform. We should therefore vote to leave, it was argued, yet there is no progressive 'leave’ campaign in existence. The campaigns by UKIP and the Tory right are seeking to make the referendum about immigration, as a result of which the referendum campaign will be a carnival of reaction.
Other comrades had therefore concluded that, while the EU is indeed pro-capitalist, pro-privatisation, pro-austerity and anti-democratic, we should vote to stay in because of the possibility of positive change and because the UK labour movement would not be strengthened, and would very possibly be weakened, by ‘Brexit’.
There was general agreement with the critique of the EU as it currently exists and some comrades made particular reference to the additional threat to public services, and the ability of elected government to act, presented by TTIP.
It was pointed out that there are environmental directives and workplace regulations which emanate from the EU and which are beneficial but, given TTIP in particular, it is difficult to know whether to vote to leave or remain.
Given the predisposition of the Tory government towards free markets and deregulation, however, it was also argued that TTIP (or something very like it) would be a danger whether the UK is 'in' or 'out'. Leaving the EU would not, in itself, be an escape from the kind of threats presented by TTIP.
The EU has come a long way from noble ideals of its foundation and, under the impact of unpopular austerity policies and migration issues, it could implode. Whatever the original social-democratic/christian-democratic consensus underlying the original union, austerity is now built into the project, as reinforced by a succession of treaties.
Therefore, even if the left should back the campaign to stay 'in', it needs also to call for the tearing up of the treaties of Brussels, Lisbon, Nice, Maastricht, and Rome etc.
The Labour leadership is therefore missing a trick, it was argued, by being insufficiently active on the EU issue and the referendum and failing to put pressure on Cameron but at least Labour is not campaigning side by side with Cameron, a lesson learned from the referendum campaign in Scotland. The situation in the Tory party and the splits in British capitalism on the issue are such that it is cannot be ruled out that the referendum will not take place.
Finally, it was observed that although there was broad agreement within WLG on the undemocratic, pro-capitalist, free market nature of the EU, there was much less agreement, and a lot of uncertainty, was whether there should be a vote to leave or remain, given the reactionary nature of much of the 'leave' campaign, the benefits that have accrued to Wales as a result of EU membership, the likelihood, or otherwise, of success in changing the culture and structure of the EU and how this could be brought about. For many, the decision will be one of tactics rather than principle.
Further contributions to this debate are strongly encouraged.
Welsh Labour MPs Feel The Heat on Syria by Nick Davies
That in a free vote, only 66
Labour MPs in a largely hostile Parliamentary Labour Party voted with the
Tories to bomb Syria, was an early success for Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
The votes of Welsh Labour MPs contributed to this. This is all the more
surprising given that there’s little Clear Red Water in evidence at Westminster, most
Welsh Labour MPs being on the right of the party and lacking the
radical instincts of some of their counterparts in the Senedd.
In the end only four Welsh MPs voted with the Tories. In the days leading up to the vote, many MPs, as in England, felt the weight of opinion from their CLP members and constituents on the issue. Some were no doubt persuaded that the case for bombing did not stack up, some were no doubt wary of any military response, having had their fingers burned on Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Some felt obliged to vote against bombing given the weight of the views of their constituents and members.
Reportedly, Owen Smith, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, was minded at the PLP meeting a few days before the vote to support bombing. That he voted against says something about the pressure he must have been under from his Pontypridd members. Swansea West MP Geraint Davies, who voted for the invasion of Iraq and has never been a natural rebel, voted against the government, 85% of his constituency members who gave their view having advised that he should.
Thus, pressure can be applied to Labour’s parliamentary caucus to heed the views of the members who work to send them to Westminster. The rank and file members – excluded, marginalised and disregarded in the New Labour years – must be the necessary counterweight to the largely hostile PLP, in support of the Corbyn-McDonnell leadership.
What of the Welsh MPs who did vote to bomb Syria? Chris Bryant (Rhondda) is an open Blairite somewhat surprisingly given a job by Jeremy Corbyn. Wayne David (Caerphilly) is another frequent Corbyn critic. Something of a surprise was Susan Elan Jones, not known as a strong right-winger. Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South & Penarth) went on to excel himself by orchestrating his on-air resignation with the BBC, a piece of destructive vanity which may damage his standing with his local party more than it damaged Jeremy Corbyn.
This article first appeared Labour Briefing magazine.
In the end only four Welsh MPs voted with the Tories. In the days leading up to the vote, many MPs, as in England, felt the weight of opinion from their CLP members and constituents on the issue. Some were no doubt persuaded that the case for bombing did not stack up, some were no doubt wary of any military response, having had their fingers burned on Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Some felt obliged to vote against bombing given the weight of the views of their constituents and members.
Reportedly, Owen Smith, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, was minded at the PLP meeting a few days before the vote to support bombing. That he voted against says something about the pressure he must have been under from his Pontypridd members. Swansea West MP Geraint Davies, who voted for the invasion of Iraq and has never been a natural rebel, voted against the government, 85% of his constituency members who gave their view having advised that he should.
Thus, pressure can be applied to Labour’s parliamentary caucus to heed the views of the members who work to send them to Westminster. The rank and file members – excluded, marginalised and disregarded in the New Labour years – must be the necessary counterweight to the largely hostile PLP, in support of the Corbyn-McDonnell leadership.
What of the Welsh MPs who did vote to bomb Syria? Chris Bryant (Rhondda) is an open Blairite somewhat surprisingly given a job by Jeremy Corbyn. Wayne David (Caerphilly) is another frequent Corbyn critic. Something of a surprise was Susan Elan Jones, not known as a strong right-winger. Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South & Penarth) went on to excel himself by orchestrating his on-air resignation with the BBC, a piece of destructive vanity which may damage his standing with his local party more than it damaged Jeremy Corbyn.
This article first appeared Labour Briefing magazine.
Friday, October 30, 2015
Democracy and leadership in the Labour Party - by Mike Hedges AM
Immediately after the defeat at
the General election in 2015, Ed Milliband resigned. What if he had decided to
stay on? We do not know.What we do
know is what happened in Scotland.Jim Murphy was elected Leader in October
2014.
Following his defeat and Labour’s rout in Scotland, Murphy said he would remain Leader of Scottish Labour. First to call for Murphy to resign from being leader was unseated MP, Ian Davidson, who said, "Morally, as the man who has led us to the biggest ever disaster that Labour has suffered in Scotland, he can’t continue." Then Pat Rafferty of Unite called for Murphy's resignation, followed by Kevin Lindsay of ASLEF. Then Neil Findlay MSP resigned from Murphy's shadow cabinet, citing the election results, followed by MSP Alex Rowley.
The decision of whether he should continue was made by the Scottish Labour Party Executive. Jim Murphy narrowly survived a vote of no confidence by 17 votes to 14. Three of the 17 votes in support of Murphy included that of Murphy himself, that of Ian Murray MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland and Labour's only MP in Scotland, and that of a Labour Peer. Murphy then announced on 16 May 2015 that he intended to step down as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party in June.
In 2010 Gordon Brown did not resign until he had failed to negotiate a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown announced on 10 May 2010 that he would stand down as Labour Leader 4 days after the election defeat that left a hung parliament. Am I the only one who thinks a new acting leader would have had a greater chance of successfully negotiating a Labour led coalition? Gordon Brown could have gone to the National Executive and he would almost certainly have been successful in continuing as Leader.
I believe that there is a moral obligation on anyone who leads a party to electoral defeat to resign immediately. If you have been rejected by the electorate then I believe you have lost the authority to lead the party. At a more local level, the vast majority of the Labour Group in Swansea wanted to remove the Leader of the Labour Group who was also Council leader. To remove the Labour group leader, they needed to get a written request for a leadership election signed by two third of the group. This was a lengthy process. Whilst the removal of a Leader is not and should not be something undertaken lightly, making it incredibly difficult also does not help.
The mechanism of electing the
leader of the Labour party at Westminster, Scotland and, I believe, Wales by
one member one vote is highly democratic. The party members choose the leader
of their party, as almost 60% of those that voted, voted to elect Jeremy
Corbyn.
Two things I learnt from this election. Firstly, allowing MPs to be the gatekeepers of who gets onto the ballot paper came very close to keeping Jeremy off the ballot paper. Someone who was overwhelmingly elected by the members nearly did not make the ballot paper. Why cannot members either self nominate or have a proposer and seconder? Whilst, with the first system, all MPs could stand and under the second system in excess of 50, what it would do is widen the debate and allow everyone a chance. My expectation is that under that system a few more - perhaps up to six - would have stood. Surely democracy means you should have the maximum possible choice?
Secondly,
members are enthused by the chance to hear a debate inside the party. When I spoke in favour of Jeremy
at the Swansea meeting I was amazed, as I know others were, at the number
attending and the enthusiasm generated. By the time Cardiff was reached, the
number in attendance was huge. A bus full came up from Swansea and there were
people from all over south Wales present. Party membership in Swansea East is
at its highest during the 40 years I have been involved. There are far more
members that in the run up to the 1997 general election.
I want to now turn to internal party democracy and
discuss West Glamorgan County Council, Swansea Council and the National
Assembly Wales. Two bodies I have been previously been elected to and one I am
currently a member of. In the days of West Glamorgan County Council and the
early days of Swansea Council or decisions were taken collectively by the
Labour Group. Whilst the Leader and committee chairs would have agreed the
report with senior officers and would report to the Labour group, the final
decision was the Labour group as a whole. They could and sometimes did reject
or amend the recommendation. Also, members collectively made recommendations at
sub committee that were then recommended either to full Council or to a
committee of all Councillors. When the cabinet system was introduced, decisions
became delegated to Cabinet members and then on in many cases to Council
officers.
Turning to the Assembly: this works on the system of a Leader directly elected by the wider party membership but with the Assembly members acting as the gatekeeper on who can stand. At the last election, won by Carwyn Jones, a Labour group of 26 members and a candidate needed to be nominated by six members meaning that the maximum number of candidates was four, three actually stood.Do we need Assembly members to act as gatekeeper? Why cannot a system that provides greater choice be brought in?Whilst we may not have a leadership election for sometime, a system is needed to be in place that makes it easier to get on the ballot paper in Wales, as much as it is needed at Westminster.The First Minister has immense power, brought about by being the Leader of the ruling group and directly elected by the membership.The Leader has absolute control. They choose the Cabinet. They can appoint to the cabinet who they want. They can remove any cabinet member at any time via a reshuffle.
As you will have seen, there are other posts that are in the gift of the First Minister such as chair of the European monitoring committee. How did I find out that Jenny Rathbone had been removed? David Deans, the Western Mail journalist, told me. Whilst I am pleased Mick Antoniw has been appointed to the post, how did I find out about the appointment? No, it was not the Western Mail...it was the BBC. I still have not been told about either event officially. There is no reason for the First Minister to tell me. He is not accountable to me as a member of the Labour Group. He is not accountable to the Labour group collectively or individually. His only accountability is to the Welsh Executive.We need to achieve two things: firstly, to make it easier for candidates to get on the ballot paper. Secondly to have greater accountability. This is a debate we need now when there is no leadership election imminent, rather than wait until we have a vacancy.
This is the text of Mike's contribution to a roundtable discussion at the Welsh Labour Grassroots AGM in Cardiff on 17 October 2015.
Monday, September 28, 2015
"It was New Labour that won" - the New Labour myth. By Mike Hedges AM
In 1992, the
Conservatives won their fourth consecutive general election, despite Labour having
expectations that they would win. Immediately after the
defeat, Neil Kinnock and Roy Hattersley resigned, to be replaced by John Smith
and Margaret Beckett.
Pundits were predicting that Labour could never win and that we would have a Conservative government for ever; then came Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992, which was a humiliation for the Conservative Government under John Major. It would never recover from the blow to its credibility, nor regain the trust of those voters it had shocked and alienated by putting up interest rates so high, even if only temporarily.
Economically, for the country, it was a release. Britain was in control of its monetary policy once more; the pound was devalued, helping to pull the economy out of recession and heralding a period of growth that lasted until the banking crisis of 2008.
A Gallup poll on the 7th September 1992, the week before John Smith became leader, showed a Conservative lead of 2% but by 28th September, after Black Wednesday, it had changed into a Labour lead of 7%. When John Smith died in May 1994, the Labour lead was consistently over 20% in the opinion polls, compared to the 12.5% it achieved under Tony Blair at the 1997 general election.
Pundits were predicting that Labour could never win and that we would have a Conservative government for ever; then came Black Wednesday on September 16, 1992, which was a humiliation for the Conservative Government under John Major. It would never recover from the blow to its credibility, nor regain the trust of those voters it had shocked and alienated by putting up interest rates so high, even if only temporarily.
Economically, for the country, it was a release. Britain was in control of its monetary policy once more; the pound was devalued, helping to pull the economy out of recession and heralding a period of growth that lasted until the banking crisis of 2008.
A Gallup poll on the 7th September 1992, the week before John Smith became leader, showed a Conservative lead of 2% but by 28th September, after Black Wednesday, it had changed into a Labour lead of 7%. When John Smith died in May 1994, the Labour lead was consistently over 20% in the opinion polls, compared to the 12.5% it achieved under Tony Blair at the 1997 general election.
The Conservatives lost economic credibility on Black Wednesday and defeat at the general election became inevitable for them, whoever the Labour leader was. However, if Black Wednesday was not enough, we also had a series of scandals; party disunity over the Europrean Union; and the desire of the electorate for change after 18 years of Tory rule.
Year
|
Labour
vote
|
No
of seats
|
%
vote
|
Change
in %vote
|
Turnout
|
Change
in turnout
|
1997
|
13,518,167
|
413
|
43.4%
|
9%
|
71.3%
|
-6.4%
|
2001
|
10,724,953
|
403
|
40.7%
|
-2.7
|
59.4%
|
-11.9%
|
2005
|
9,552,436
|
355
|
35.2%
|
-5.5%
|
61.4%
|
2%
|
2010
|
8,606,517
|
258
|
29.0%
|
-6.2%
|
65.1%
|
3.7%
|
2015
|
9,347,304
|
232
|
30.4%
|
1.4
|
66.1
|
1.0%
|
As the table
above shows, following the Labour landslide of 1997, there has been a continual
loss of seats and - until 2010 - votes at every election. Turnout collapsed at the
2001 election and, despite making postal votes available on demand, turnout still
is substantially under the 1997 figure.
From May 1994 until 2010, Labour was led by the two architects of New Labour: Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. During that time, 158 seats were lost; 14.4% or approximately 1/3 of the 1997 vote was also lost; and turnout fell by approximately 6%.
In summary: New Labour inherited a winning position and has overseen the continual reduction of the number of seats at each election since 1997. I believe a better way to describe what happened - as opposed to the New Labour spin - is:
From May 1994 until 2010, Labour was led by the two architects of New Labour: Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. During that time, 158 seats were lost; 14.4% or approximately 1/3 of the 1997 vote was also lost; and turnout fell by approximately 6%.
In summary: New Labour inherited a winning position and has overseen the continual reduction of the number of seats at each election since 1997. I believe a better way to describe what happened - as opposed to the New Labour spin - is:
- the Tories lost the confidence of the electorate due to Black Wednesday;
- Labour won a landslide but failed to fulfil the aspirations of its voters, many of whom became disillusioned - either staying home or voting for third parties in subsequent elections;
- Labour lost economic credibility following the banking crisis in 2008 and thus lost in 2010;
- Tony Blair was in the right place at the right time. Napoleon Bonaparte said, "Give me lucky generals"; so, with politics: "Give me a lucky leader."
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