tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61339293559002017832024-02-20T06:03:51.532+00:00Welsh Labour GrassrootsNews and discussion for activists and supporters of the left and centre left of the Labour Party in Wales.Mikehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01100676919037753818noreply@blogger.comBlogger96125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-76741203718606046512016-06-22T12:05:00.002+01:002016-06-22T12:12:21.578+01:00Why I’ll be voting ‘Remain’ tomorrow – by Darren WilliamsAt this point, it may seem unnecessary for a Labour left-winger to seek to justify a decision to vote ‘Remain’, as it’s been increasingly difficult to find ‘Leave’ supporters within the Labour party, or anywhere else on the mainstream left and centre-left, within recent weeks. But even a couple of months ago, it did not seem so inevitable that someone like me would vote to remain in the EU – speaking personally, I had not made up my mind – and the issues are just as complex, and as important, now as they were then. So, I will rehearse what I see as the main arguments, even if most or all of this has already been said by others.<br />
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My starting-point is a commitment to internationalism and a desire to see the establishment of a United States of Europe – an equal and democratic alliance of all the nations and peoples across the European continent, from Ireland to the Urals. I recognise that the current European Union is very far from that ideal, being dominated by the major powers at the expense of the smaller countries and those outside the Union, and run in the interests of their ruling classes. Of course, it is the case that the EEC was, from the outset, a “capitalist club”, more interested in free movement of capital than of people and more dedicated to private property rights than to the rights of ordinary people, as citizens, workers or consumers. But, along the way, it has secured greater legitimacy by instituting valuable social protections and by redistributing resources, to some extent, from the richer to the poorer nations and regions. Over the last twenty years or so, the EU has promoted privatisation (e.g. the Services Directive); enforced fiscal discipline (e.g. the Stability and Growth Pact and the more recent Fiscal Compact); and, since the financial crash, has imposed draconian austerity measures on those countries it has “bailed out”. TTIP threatens to take these neo-liberal tendencies further. But the real question is this: if we want a European union that is different from the current EU, is it more credible to think we can achieve that by taking charge of the existing framework of treaties, protocols and reciprocal obligations and reforming the current institutions to produce different outcomes? Or by withdrawing altogether in the hope that that this will precipitate the collapse of the whole edifice and allow the ‘liberated’ nations of Europe to start again from scratch? The former option may entail the formidable prospect of renegotiating every major treaty from 1957 onwards in order to achieve a complete turnaround, in many respects, from the EU’s current trajectory - but the latter is a complete step into the unknown.<br />
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Second, the argument by left-wing supporters of ‘Exit’, that the EU is inherently reactionary implies that it has a distinct, ‘corporate’ political character independent of, and taking precedence over, the cumulative political character of its member-states. Certainly, the EU is capable of compelling a country like Greece to abandon the mandate on which its government was elected. But if a majority of member states were to reject neo-liberalism, are we really to believe that they would nevertheless be obliged to accept the dictates of an organisation that could not exist without their financial, political and diplomatic participation? The neo-liberal character of the EU is surely no more than a reflection of the general political ascendancy of neo-liberalism over the last thirty years and its defeat or co-option of social democracy. The left cannot defeat neo-liberalism on the European continent by abolishing the supranational institutions through which neo-liberal policies are enforced. Rather, the political defeat of neo-liberalism by a revived and emboldened left is the precondition for any substantial lasting reform of those institutions. It follows that the best chance of beginning that process is by taking our cue from those parties that have gone furthest in challenging neo-liberalism, such as Syriza and Podemos. And those parties are arguing for radical reform of the EU from within, not for withdrawal.<br />
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Third, for a ‘Brexit’ to have progressive consequences, people would have to have voted for it on that basis and there would need to be a movement capable of presenting the necessary conclusions to a mass audience and taking the struggle for a more progressive Europe to the next stage. The reality is, however, that the Left Exit (‘Lexit’) campaign has been virtually invisible, given the near-total absence of prominent mainstream left-wingers supporting ‘Leave’, which has left the field to the CPB, SWP and Socialist Party. We can complain about media bias and misrepresentation but it does not change the fact that the only voices calling for ‘Brexit’ that most voters will have heard are those of UKIP and the Tory right, along with their allies in business and the media. Those are the political forces that would be strengthened by a vote for ‘Brexit’ and given a mandate to pursue their own political aims. And those aims are, needless to say, inimical to the interests of ordinary people. The ‘debate’ over Europe, such as it is, has, of course, been dominated by the question of immigration and a UK outside the EU would undoubtedly impose even greater restrictions on migrants and refugees than currently exist. In addition, a post-Brexit Tory government - presumably led by a Johnson or a Gove – would (as has frequently been pointed out) move to scrap many of the workplace rights, equality laws, health and safety legislation and other ‘red tape’ that is supposedly holding back British business. And, while the TTIP negotiations pose the threat of such protections being stripped away by EU officials themselves, there is at least greater chance of such retrograde steps being halted by a continent-wide campaign than there is of equivalent measures, undertaken by a strengthened Tory government, being blocked in Britain. The other significant political consequence of a ‘Leave’ vote would be a blow to the personal standing of Jeremy Corbyn and a setback to his political project of moving Labour to the left. We may not like the way that Corbyn – always personally ambivalent about the EU – was bounced by Hilary Benn and others into pledging Labour’s unqualified support for ‘IN’ vote, but he has nevertheless invested his personal credibility in the campaign and the party as a whole has rallied round. A ‘Leave’ vote would be a disaster for the Labour left, as in so many other respects.<br />
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There is much else that could be said but the above points, in my view, clinch the case for ‘Remain’ from a specifically socialist perspective. One might well resent the uncritical praise lavished on the EU by Labour spokespeople or the apocalyptic tone of the post-Brexit scenarios invoked by the ‘Remain’ campaign (mirroring, to some extent, the more offensive scaremongering of the ‘Leave’ lobby). The sight of Sadiq Khan, Harriet Harman and Carwyn Jones lining up with Cameron and his cronies at press conferences is an unedifying reminder of how little Labour has learned from the ‘Better Together’ campaign debacle in Scotland in 2014. But, in the end, there are only two options on the ballot-paper and it is incumbent on all of us to decide which would be more conducive to the political objectives of the left. No socialist would have chosen to have this debate conducted in the terms we have witnessed in recent weeks – but we cannot change that now. All we can do is to decide which outcome we would rather wake up to on Friday morning, taking into account the implications for working people, the unemployed, pensioners, refugees, migrants and all those whose lives are blighted by prejudice and inequality. But if, as I hope, the vote is for ‘Remain’, the left needs to be much more serious and committed in our campaigning for a different kind of Europe – one that is truly democratic, that breaks with austerity and that supports public services, not privatisation. It is long overdue for Labour to lead such a campaign, instead of simply paying lip service to the need for ‘reform’.<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-25009763844641495462016-06-16T16:05:00.002+01:002016-06-16T16:45:25.026+01:00Challenging UKIP's statistics – By Iain Claridge<em>“Net Migration a Third of a Million – a City the Size of Birmingham every Three Years ...How can we afford council houses or NHS ?”</em><br />
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So claimed Neil Hamilton on <em>Question Time</em> from Cardiff City Hall on 2 June (the day before Jeremy Corbyn spoke there, invisible as always to the BBC). Hamilton`s lie got the inevitable racist response from the audience.<br />
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But is net migration (all immigration minus all emigration) the “third of a million” no one, not even <a href="http://gu.com/p/4kmtk/sbl">Owen Jones</a>, challenged on 2 June? And should the Left challenge the figures in these last days of the EU campaign ?<br />
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The <a href="http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06077">26 May House of Commons briefing paper</a> gives (on p.10) the 333,000 figure and three pages later 188,000 non EU net migrants and 184,000 EU net migrants. These figures are slippery, calculations from estimates extrapolated from surveys. Mark Easton on BBC news (14 June) even allowed himself to use an EU in-migration figure of 270,000 – without correcting for EU nationals leaving UK.<br />
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But it is possible to present voters with a figure that is less frightening than “A Third of a Million” and truer for the impact of migration on schools, social housing and working-class jobs - the message of being "swamped" that is cutting so hard in Labour heartlands.<br />
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The 333,000 includes non-UK students. On the basis of verifiable data from visas and university statistics, student-in migration is 192,000, <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjI2drq7ZrNAhVfGsAKHd9gAJcQFggeMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Fons%2Frel%2Fmigration1%2Flong-term-international-migration%2Fstudent-migration---what-do-the-statistics-tell-us-%2Fstudent-migration---what-do-the-statistics-tell-us.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFoEP4R_hMuv574M-6Pr_xpxprLZA">according to the Office for National Statistics</a>. <br />
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As Vince Cable argued when in government, one can simply remove the non-UK student in-flow and 333,000 becomes 141,000. Students are not long-term immigrants and should not be counted as such, as even <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12028078/Osborne-indicates-students-may-be-stripped-from-migrant-numbers.html">George Osborne apparently now admits</a>. <br />
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The net migration figure of 333,000 doesn`t go that far. It counts the 192,000 students in and then uses a flawed International Passenger Survey estimate of 57,000 students returning home to put 135,000 students in the net migration figures.<br />
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Facing Andrew Neil on 10 June, Farage had no answer but his passport for how to get net migration below 100,000 - but remove students and the figure is in sight.<br />
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Of course, UKIP doesn`t tell its supporters that “a third of a million” includes non-UK students paying well over £6 billion a year in fees but that`s the truth of <a href="http://institutions.ukcisa.org.uk//info-for-universities-colleges--schools/policy-research--statistics/research--statistics/international-students-in-uk-he/">436,585 non UK students in Higher Education in Britain (2014-2015)</a>. Three quarters of non UK students are non EU.<br />
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The government itself only started collecting exit data on students leaving the UK in April 2015. We may presume these checks will show many more than 57,000 return home after study – taking the non EU three quarters of 192,000 down by c.140,000 and the net migration figure to under 200,000. But by the time these statistics of real student outflow are released the referendum will be lost.<br />
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And removing students from the net migration figures alters the perception of EU migrants we can address on the doorstep. Remove 50,000 EU student immigrants from 184,000 EU net immigration – getting degrees not competing for jobs on building sites and East Anglian farms! <br />
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EU net migration is little more than 100,000 a year within a total 2015 net migration of around 200,000 including c.70,000 non EU work visas and 32,000 asylum seekers. <br />
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I've tried it as a leaflet. Brexiters can`t contest the non-EU fee benefit. Voters from ethnic minorities and non-voting EU nationals feel reassured that UKIP claims are being contested. <br />
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Is it possible we can even reassure worried traditional Labour voters that their school places, jobs and NHS access are no more under immigrant assault than in the last twenty years?<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-34247863434163179282016-06-12T18:52:00.001+01:002016-06-12T18:52:30.211+01:00Reluctant 'Remain' – By Lyn EynonMany on the left are committed to 'Leave' the EU, viewed as irremediably pro-capitalist, but I shall reluctantly vote to Remain. Although WLG has taken no position on the EU referendum, UK Momentum supports Labour 'IN' but, like Jeremy Corbyn, will not campaign with Tories, both on principle and as a lesson from the debacle in Scotland. '<a href="http://www.anothereurope.org/">Another Europe is Possible</a>' advises 'Remain' but advocates radical reform to tackle the serious flaws of the EU. Both sides exaggerate how much of the past 40 years can be attributed to the EU. The TUC presents protections within EU law as gifts for which we should be grateful, rather than rights won through struggles. EU treaties look restrictive but allow more opportunity than often admitted, if elected politicians seek it. Politics counts for more than institutions, and 'Brexit' would today spur the growth of the nationalist far right across Europe. We should Remain, then campaign across Europe for change.<br /><br />Let’s start with rights. EU protection for workers is valuable against a Tory government, even though EU law today allows employers to exploit migrant workers to drive down pay and conditions. The EU provides a framework but national politics matter. French workers are fighting a law imposed not by the EU Commission but by the Hollande-Valls government. It originates from Paris, not from Brussels. Similarly, the Tory TU Bill was drafted in Westminster. Brexit would offer more immediate opportunity for Tories to attack rights than for unions to extend them. There is no prospect of this government improving protection for consumers or the environment, which would be at serious risk.<br /><br />Neoliberalism defines the worldview of most EU leaders but austerity does not follow directly from EU treaties. In the UK, it is driven by a Tory government that sees an opportunity to attack acquired rights and public services. The EU is not forcing Osborne to cut and we should not excuse him by suggesting it is. The Eurozone is more restrictive, as states have lost control of monetary policy, but the UK referendum is not about the Euro. Even in the Eurozone, there is more scope than politicians pretend. When the EU tried to fine Germany and France for exceeding deficit limits, it was put in its place. A Podemos-led government in Spain would undoubtedly face obstruction but even the Greek example does not prove that austerity is inevitable. The EU Commission acted as it did because the politicians backed it. Hollande could have blunted the attack on Greece and with Renzi’s support he could have blocked it. If the SPD broke with Merkel, it could challenge Berlin’s fixation on public debt. The issue is not the wording of treaties but the political bankruptcy of European social democracy. This is not a vote on neoliberalism. Socialists working together across Europe can stop austerity. Brexit will not.<br /><br />Any decent human being should feel appalled at the EU’s treatment of refugees escaping from chaos initiated or worsened by military interventions. But the referendum is not a vote of moral censure and leaving the EU will not help. The UK stance has been one of the worst and will not be improved by a campaign infected by racism. The Tory Leavers, cheered on by UKIP, would cut migration to deliver on their rhetoric, worsening life for refugees. Across Europe, governments would see Brexit as confirming that anti-migrant policies win votes, and harden their positions. Fewer refugees would be accepted.<br /><br />The great and the good of the economics establishment have lined up with dire prognoses of the costs of leaving the EU, but we do not need to accept all the claims or the spuriously precise predictions to acknowledge that the impact would be disruptive, particularly for a vulnerable economy like Wales. Investment and exports would fall, hitting jobs and wages in a new recession, already a significant risk as the global economy slows. The Tory government is more likely to tighten austerity than to act to offset this. Nor will the Tories put the interests of working people first when negotiating new trade deals with the EU. Instead, they will look for opportunities to shift the balance further in favour of big business. TTIP is often quoted as an example of how the EU bows to corporate interests but a Tory government would be keen to sign a UK-US deal on similar or worse lines. Indeed, with opposition to TTIP growing, it’s possible that the EU would reject what the UK would accept. It is hard to see how Brexit, under a Tory government, would benefit workers or consumers.<br /><br />The argument that EU institutions are fundamentally undemocratic and constrain elected national governments is powerful. It is undeniable that EU structures make it easier to hear elite lobbyists than the European people. If we remain, socialists and other progressive forces across Europe must challenge this. But the Council of Ministers only accepts Commission proposals because elected governments concur. The EU treaties define procedures but do not compel agreement, and we should not let politicians hide behind bureaucrats to pass bad laws. Leaving the EU would not give the UK a free hand. We would still be members of the WTO, NATO, the IMF and many other organisations, and most of the 14,000 treaties the UK has signed would still apply. Treaties impose shared obligations, which are essential in an otherwise anarchic world. The UK pressed for the European Convention on Human Rights to hinder fascism but the Tory right would like to leave that too. Autarchy is not an option. Britain would need new reciprocal arrangements with EU countries, and there is no guarantee these would be better. Indeed, in Tory hands, we can expect them to be even worse.<br /><br />Behind left concerns on EU democracy lies the fear that a future socialist government would be unable to carry through the programme on which it had been elected, as either the Commission or the European Court of Justice would block it. Is this true? Unlike Syriza, a Labour government need not face an immediate confrontation with the EU: we have our own central bank, we can borrow in sterling under English law, and our economy is far stronger than that of Greece. We will not need permission to initiate our programme. Nor need we directly challenge the EU from the outset. The next Labour government will have a long agenda and the EU would have weak grounds to obstruct steps to reduce tax avoidance, tighten financial regulation, restore union rights, or remove labour market abuses. McDonnell’s Fiscal Credibility Rule does not threaten public finances; Germany cannot object to a National Investment Bank when it has one itself; house-building can be self-financing; green investment meets the EU’s own commitments; Parliament can revise the Bank of England’s mandate ... and so on. <br /><br />Some of this might be challenged, depending on how certain EU treaty clauses are interpreted. But we should approach this not as amateur lawyers but as political actors. Neoliberal orthodoxy is crumbling, with even the IMF calling on governments to take on more debt to finance investment, and a Labour government could defend well-crafted policies with strong popular backing. Conflict is more likely over state aid and competition rules, which could hamper industrial policy and public ownership, but, once again, the treaties and the institutions define the terrain for any dispute but do not prejudge its outcome. Since the crash, the EU Commission has approved over 400 state aid applications for banks, including nationalisations. Governments wanted that and it happened. How far Labour could go would ultimately depend on the political balance in Europe, not on references to the ECJ. In the right political circumstances, rulings could be rejected and, yes, Britain could threaten to leave the EU, and do so if necessary. But what might be required in a hypothetical future is misjudged today.<br /><br />Socialists should decide Remain or Leave on its consequences. Brexit would create opportunities, but for the right as well as for the left. After a vicious campaign, attacks on workers and migrants are more likely than a socialist dawn. Cameron would fall but it is wishful thinking to imagine an immediate election making Jeremy Corbyn PM. Financial and business interests will not trust Labour to negotiate corporate-friendly treaties and will rally behind a new Tory leader. A defeat for Remain would open recriminations in Labour and weaken Corbyn’s leadership. The EU’s failures have spawned a vicious far right in many countries but Brexit would further stimulate this by demonstrating success for anti-migrant, anti-union politics. Let’s not delude ourselves into believing it would be seen across Europe as a vote against austerity. By encouraging nationalism, Brexit would reduce stability at a time when hardening borders could turn into violent conflicts. Peace is not guaranteed. How would the left gain from any of this? Today, in June 2016, the right would win most from Leave. Reluctant 'Remain' it is.<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-3468334466828160932016-06-12T18:39:00.005+01:002016-06-12T18:39:53.748+01:00Are some members of the Labour party more equal than others? By M’Learned FriendIt takes a dogged and skilled lawyer to plough through the national party rule book and the inchoate add-ons that are the unfocussed supplementary rules that operate in Wales. <br /><br />However, a party member doesn’t have to be a lawyer to wonder if there isn’t one law for the self important Blairite and another for any member daring to hold (and express) “radical views”.<br /><br />Consider a few examples of the way the party has publicly treated its members in recent weeks. <br /><br />Two different members “on the left” - one an old, gnarled, successful (by most standards) MP and former Mayor of London and another a young MP – have been publicly attacked and faced demands for their immediate expulsion (without due process) from the party for views expressed about historical events. In one case, suspension from the party followed quickly and the NEC is now conducting an enquiry. In the other, an apology was deemed sufficient. <br /><br />At the same time, the party has not batted an eyelid as senior figures – from a more “centrist background” publicly, intentionally and repeatedly criticise the party leadership. Some have even been filmed by TV crews in aggressive name-calling of colleagues with whom they disagree. (Some party members take the view that party meetings are where such robust debate should occur – so long as it is done within party rules). In Wales, one MP has been publicly accused by four different national newspapers of mistreating her staff and exhibiting homophobic behaviour. The response from the party in the weeks that followed? Zilch! Surely in the interests of all concerned – including the MP – such allegations should be properly investigated and either disproved – or acted upon?<br /><br />The party rulebook - though long and opaque – lists the following offences that members can commit: <br />
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<li>Chapter 2, Clause 1 - serious criminal offences; conduct grossly detrimental to the party; standing against a Labour candidate</li>
<li>Chapter 6 (page 25) - allows disciplinary action for breach of the rules and constitution.</li>
<li>Chapter 15 (clause 1, O) notes that harassment and intimidation of members is unacceptable, as is any form of discrimination on the basis of gender, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability or race. </li>
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Of course, good judgment has to be exercised in all such cases in the interests of fairness to all. But at the moment, where you stand in the party (in terms of seniority or political belief) seems to have more influence on what happens than the facts themselves. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-43764014982486886422016-06-08T10:26:00.005+01:002016-06-08T10:28:51.346+01:00UKIP in Swansea East - by Mike Hedges AM UKIP came second in both the General Election and May's National Assembly election in Swansea East, winning 3274 votes (16%) at the Assembly election. Whilst UKIP’s result in Swansea East was not as good as in many South East Wales seats, it is still a cause for concern.<br />
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I will address three questions: <em>who</em>, <em>why</em> and <em>how do we win them back</em>?</div>
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<strong>Firstly, who?</strong></div>
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A simple examination of the Assembly election result would indicate that UKIP took votes from Labour and the Conservatives, took the bulk of the BNP vote from 2011 and got some who did not vote in 2011 to vote this time.</div>
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Looking at it in greater detail, most of the 2011 BNP vote will have gone to UKIP, interestingly for the first time with no BNP candidates; BNP was not written on rejected ballot papers.</div>
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That former Labour voters switched to UKIP is, I believe, undeniable, the Labour vote fell by 309, the Conservative vote fell by 1025 and there were 1102 BNP voters giving 2436 votes leaving 738 from people who did not vote last time.</div>
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Anything beyond those simple figures could be considered conjecture but we also know the result of the Mynyddbach by election held on the same day but without UKIP, where Labour took 65% of the vote, as opposed to a projected 55% in the Assembly election which compares with the overall 52% across the constituency. 10% of the vote across the constituency equates to about 2000 votes and 5% to approximately a 1000. I would guess UKIP took votes somewhere in between those two from previous Labour voters. The rise of UKIP is very much a Labour problem.</div>
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<strong>This takes us on to <em>why</em>.</strong></div>
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Why did former Labour voters vote for a right-wing party with a former right-wing Tory Leadership?</div>
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<em>UKIP</em></div>
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They have a simple message leave the EU, end immigration and everything will be alright.</div>
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<em>Personal experience</em></div>
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People’s political views are based upon, personal experience, family political loyalty and perception of political parties</div>
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For many, their personal experiences are:</div>
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<li>Difficulty of getting social housing either personally or for family members</li>
<li>Lack of employment prospects</li>
<li>Zero hour or very few guaranteed hours contracts</li>
<li>Debt or the fear of debt</li>
<li>Victims of austerity</li>
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<em>Labour</em></div>
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What has Labour done wrong?</div>
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<li>Do not engage enough with them</li>
<li>Our “good communicators” do not communicate with them</li>
<li>Do not address their concerns</li>
<li>Appear irrelevant to their lives</li>
<li>Most importantly Labour is no longer seen as on their side</li>
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<strong>How do we win them back?</strong></div>
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<li>This is written before the Euro referendum;<em> </em>if we withdraw from Europe, then the reason for UKIP to exist disappears.</li>
<li>The Mynyddbach result shows that many of these voters are not lost forever. We are their second choice; we need to become their first choice again.</li>
<li>Talk to them - campaigning is not only knocking on doors and identifying Labour voters. Engage with their concerns Address their concerns; they are real even if the solution they have solution chosen is wrong.</li>
<li>Build Council and other social housing thus reducing the housing pressure.</li>
<li>Support the “real” living wage not the Tories increased minimum wage called the living wage</li>
<li>What do most people want? A nice house, a job, adequate pay, no fear of debt and opportunities for their children. We need to address these desires in the language of the electorate who we are trying to communicate with.</li>
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We can win them back but we will not do so by doing the same as before.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-17951926566027644412016-06-08T10:09:00.002+01:002016-06-08T10:12:22.237+01:00Welsh Executive Committee report - by Darren Williams<em>Report of the Labour Welsh Executive Committee meeting held on 14 May 2016 by Darren Williams CLP rep for South Wales Central (Cardiff, the Vale and RCT)</em> <br /><br />This was the first full meeting of the Welsh Executive Committee (WEC) elected at the end of last year, which took office at Welsh Labour conference in February (there was a very brief meeting at the conference, to elect a chair and vice-chair and fill some other posts). <br /><br /><strong>Election report</strong><br />The main item of business was a report and discussion on the Assembly election campaign, the results and subsequent developments at Cardiff Bay. <br /><br />Carwyn Jones said that Labour’s result had been better than expected and that the results in Cardiff North and the Vale, in particular, had been gratifying, but our overall vote had gone down and much of it had gone to UKIP. The latter had already split, in effect, into two groups in the Assembly. Plaid had done well in Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West, as well as in the Rhondda, focussing mainly on local issues. There was little doubt that they had intended to take over the government when nominating Leanne for First Minister on 11 May and that Plaid AMs had approached the Tories and UKIP with this in mind. There had been strong public opposition to their manoeuvring, however.<br /><br />Janice Gregory also gave her perspective as campaign co-ordinator. She said the campaign team had met weekly and had had big issues to contend with, like the steel crisis, which has had to be factored into the campaign. She praised the team in Transport House, whom she felt couldn’t have done more. She said that the result in the Rhondda had taken everyone by surprise.<br /><br />The general secretary, Dave Hagendyk said it had been a very difficult campaign, with the Labour vote squeezed by Plaid and UKIP. Labour had undertaken four direct mailings in target seats and distributed three million pieces of print altogether, as well as using Facebook targetting. Across Wales, close to 300,000 people had been spoken to – more than anywhere else in the UK, outside London. Labour’s result in North Wales had been tremendous but recent elections had seen the party retreat eastward and we now needed to work hard to re-establish ourselves in the West and North-West of Wales. Welsh Labour would carry out a detailed analysis of the campaign and election results over the next couple of months and bring back a report to a future meeting. <br /><br />There was a lengthy and thorough discussion of the campaign, some of the main points of which included: details of the campaigning tactics employed by Plaid in the Rhondda; the desirability in future of campaign messages tailored more specifically at North Wales; and the need to analyse the reasons for the big vote for UKIP.<br /><br />In the context of a comment about the damaging effects of party disunity, there was some criticism (justifiably, in my view) of the circumstances of Stephen Doughty’s resignation from the front bench earlier in the year. Stephen, who was present as one of the two representatives of the Welsh PLP, defended himself, saying that he had resigned in writing prior to the contentious BBC interview on the matter and – notwithstanding his criticisms of the reshuffle – had worked loyally with the party leadership throughout. His explanation was accepted by the chair.<br /><br />Carwyn alluded to the events surrounding Ken Livingstone’s comments about Zionism and the cancellation of Jeremy Corbyn’s planned visit to Wales. He criticised Ken for detracting from the positive messages of the campaign, saying that a day had been wasted, and reiterated that he had not stopped Jeremy from coming to Wales: the decision had been made by mutual agreement. While agreeing with Carwyn about the unhelpfulness of Ken’s comments, I expressed concern about his call for Ken to be expelled, as I felt that any disciplinary penalty should await the outcome of the party’s investigation. I also said that, notwithstanding the explanation he had given about Jeremy’s visit, the comments in the Western Mail attributed to a “party source” had been damaging, as they had implied that Jeremy was an electoral liability. Carwyn said that the media coverage had been “unfortunate” and Janice added that it was difficult to prevent people lacking any real authority from preventing themselves in the media as anonymous “Labour sources”. Andy Richards of Unite said that his union backed Carwyn’s position on the Livingstone issue. <br /><br />I also commented on the Plaid campaign in Cardiff West, which had been very negative and focussed entirely on local government, rather than Assembly, issues, and I endorsed another Committee member’s comment that it was a shame that the Welsh Labour manifesto had been published so late. <br /><br />Report from Nia Griffith, Shadow Welsh Secretary – Nia talked about the series of issues over which the UK Tory government had been forced to back down recently, including their plans to force all English schools to become Academies, as well as aspects of the draconian Trade Union Bill. The Queen’s Speech was due to take place in the coming week and the proposed legislation to tackle extremism was likely to be particularly controversial, in the light of the disgraceful Islamophobic campaign against Sadiq Khan. Nia also commented on the implications of the Tories’ proposed parliamentary boundary changes, which would reduce Wales’ representation from 40 seats to 29. Stephen Doughty observed that the partial success of the campaign against the Trade Union Bill showed that the Tories can be defeated. Dave Hagendyk added that thanks were also due to Labour’s representatives in the House of Lords, including Eluned Morgan, who had now been elected to the Assembly.<br /><br /><strong>European Referendum</strong><br />Dave reported that printed campaign materials had now been delivered. The campaign needed to engage both with those voters who needed to be persuaded to vote ‘yes’ and with those already inclined to do so, who needed to be encouraged to turn out. Many loyal Labour voters were unconvinced of the need to remain in the EU and so much of the party’s efforts would be focussed on ‘heartland’ areas, rather than election marginals. There was a discussion, covering a number of points, including: the need to get the student vote out; the varying attitudes to the EU in different economic sectors; and the need to counter UKIP’s appeal to disaffected voters. Margaret Thomas of Unison said that her union had registered as a third-party campaign for the referendum, having consulted members, who’d been overwhelmingly supportive of a ‘yes’ vote. I said that Labour needed to have a distinct message from the official ‘IN’ campaign, emphasising the need for reform of the EU, to avoid repeating our mistake in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, when we were seen as too close to the Tories in the ‘Better Together’ campaign. <br />
<br /><br />
<strong>General Secretary’s report</strong><br />Dave said that the Welsh party’s policy consultation work now needed to be refocussed on UK-wide issues, via ‘Your Britain’. He also reported that Welsh Labour would be left with just two organisers after the referendum: Michelle in North Wales and one (to be appointed) in the South.<br /><br /><strong>Party Reform update</strong><br />The chair, Donna Hutton reported that a ‘Party Reform’ exercise was being led by the NEC, with a number of strands, including one concerning the relationship between the party centrally and its Welsh and Scottish organisations. Andy Richards had been representing Welsh Labour in discussions about areas of party activity in which responsibility could be devolved to Wales. Any proposals would be put before the party conference in September, after which the Welsh party would conduct its own, detailed review of its rules and processes, which would culminate at the 2017 Welsh conference. In response to a question from Catherine Thomas (Mid & West Wales CLPs), it was confirmed that this would include agreeing a more consistent approach to gender-balanced representation.<br /><br /><strong>Welsh Labour Conference 2017</strong><br />It was confirmed that this will take place in Llandudno, 22-26 March.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-26193631464779265562016-06-08T09:54:00.000+01:002016-06-08T09:57:20.045+01:00Inconclusive Welsh election sees Labour back in office - by Darren WilliamsAs with the other elections taking place on 5 May, those in Wales were always going to be treated, in part, as a test of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour party. A significant setback for the party would have been attributed to its supposed ‘leftward lurch’, by detractors outside and within. Troublingly, the Welsh Labour leadership prepared the ground for this scenario by allowing the media to infer, on two separate occasions, that they considered Corbyn an electoral liability.<br /><br />The first of these was at the close of the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno in February, when First Minister Carwyn Jones said that he wanted to distance his party’s Welsh election campaign from developments in a way that implicitly identified Corbyn as the main problem.<br /><br />The second occasion was in the specific circumstances of the Ken Livingstone “anti-semitism” media storm. Carwyn Jones not only called for Ken’s immediate expulsion from the party (displaying rather less respect for due process than one might expect from a trained barrister) but decided (supposedly in agreement with Jeremy) that the leader’s planned visit to Wales should be cancelled, giving rise to the headline “Carwyn bars Corbyn” on the front page of the Western Mail. Carwyn disputed the word “bar” in an email to party members but was evasive about who had initiated the change of plan and could not explain a press comment from an unnamed “source” to the effect that efforts to present Carwyn publicly as the only credible First Minister were a “a difficult sell with Jeremy”.<br /><br />The latter was one of the few noteworthy incidents in a campaign generally free not only of drama but of serious political discussion (not helped by Labour holding back its – perfectly worthy – manifesto until halfway through the short campaign).<br /><br />To the disappointment, no doubt, of Corbyn-bashers, Labour lost less ground than predicted, losing only one of the thirty seats it held before 5 May. This outcome does understate, to some extent, a drop of 7.6 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, in Labour’s share of the constituency and list votes, but there was at least no loss of ground to the Tories, who failed to take any of their targets and slipped back behind Plaid Cymru. It was to Plaid leader, Leanne Wood, that Labour lost its one seat: the Rhondda, where she was able to stand (for the first time, under new rules) as a constituency, as well as a regional list candidate and defeated Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews, a ’big beast’ from the right of the party.<br /><br />Otherwise, despite squeezing Labour majorities in Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Cardiff West, Plaid failed to make gains and it was, unfortunately, only UKIP who advanced across Wales, winning representation for the first time with a group of seven, now headed by the odious Neil Hamilton. Much of UKIP’s vote – as in last year’s general election – was a direct transfer from Labour, reflecting a sense of disillusionment and abandonment on the part of working-class voters in declining post-industrial communities and emphasising the enormity of the task Labour faces to win back many of its core voters who began to lose faith during the Blair years.<br /><br />Labour’s one lost seat put the party at a two-vote disadvantage in the Senedd when the new Assembly met for the first time on 11 May. Following inconclusive talks with Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood was nominated as First Minister, in opposition to Carwyn, and dramatically won the support of Tory and UKIP AMs, which resulted in a tied vote (only the vote for Carwyn by the Lib Dems’ one remaining Member, Kirsty Williams, prevented Leanne from winning office). This unexpected deadlock prompted sharp condemnation of Plaid by Labour members and commentators, for accepting the support of the right, although it remains unclear how far Plaid actively solicited their votes (it seems likely that someone in Plaid – even if not Leanne – approached the Tories and UKIP).<br /><br />Urgent talks between Labour and Plaid then ensued, producing an agreement based not on coalition but on agreed priorities for the new Assembly’s first 100 days and ongoing consultation via three newly-established committees. With Carwyn finally confirmed as first minister on 18 May, he appointed a new cabinet in which right-wingers were noticeably more prominent than before; Kirsty Williams was rewarded for her earlier support with the Education brief; and leading left-winger, Mark Drakeford was unfortunately moved away from the health brief (albeit to the substantial portfolio of Finance and Local Government). With the steel crisis just the most pressing of many formidable challenges, this new Cabinet has its work cut out.<br /><br />This article was written for the current edition of <em>Original Labour Briefing</em> magazine.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-35229567578253946602016-06-08T09:37:00.002+01:002016-06-08T09:51:36.873+01:00Definitely Not Unelectable - by Dr John CoxLabour was predicted to suffer its greatest-ever election defeat on May 5th – enough, some hoped, to ‘justify’ a coup against Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.<br /><br />But these predictions were way out and a coup now seems most unlikely. In reality, Jeremy’s leadership is unassailable (a recent poll has him more popular now than when first elected). A survey of Labour supporters after the election revealed that over 55% thought Labour had done “moderately well” and a further 17% said “very well”.<br /><br />Although Jeremy himself has warned that Labour is “not yet doing enough” to win the 2020 general election, these election results demonstrate that Labour, under Jeremy’s leadership, is definitely not unelectable.<br /><br />That much is uncontroversial. But the differing results on May 5th for England, Scotland and Wales suggest further lessons from the voting.<br /><br /><strong>England</strong><br />It was predicted that Labour could lose upwards of 200 Councillors compared with its 2012 high point. In the event, Labour lost only 18 Councillors (whilst the Tories lost 48 seats without a squeak from the media). Labour also won every Mayoral election and several Police Commissioner elections.<br /><br />If 2012 was a great result for Labour, so must be 2016. Compared with the May 2015 General Election this was a huge improvement for the newly Corbyn-led Labour and, based solely on these results, Labour would be on course to win in 2020<br /><br /><strong>Scotland</strong><br />Labour’s vote plummeted in 2015 (due to the mistakes of the previous decade and the Independence Referendum) and no-one expected a recovery this soon. In the event, Labour still won more votes than the Tories in Scotland – a fact ignored by the media who, instead, preferred to trumpet that the Tories won more seats.<br /><br />I’m no expert on Scotland but I would have been astonished if the long-term decline in Labour’s vote had been reversed. Scotland provides no credible evidence that Jeremy’s election as leader affected these results adversely.<br /><br /><strong>Wales</strong><br />Before May 5th pundits predicted that Labour would fare better in Wales than England – because Corbyn is supposedly unpopular here (with Welsh Labour). In the event, Labour did improve on the 2015 General Election results – but it’s constituency votes fell catastrophically from 42% to 35%.<br /><br />I would not claim – with the complication of UKIP votes to explain – this as a positive rejection of Welsh Labour’s efforts to distance itself from UK Labour – but it is fair to conclude that there is no evidence that this reaped a dividend.<br /><br /><strong>Labour’s campaign</strong><br />Enough of punditry – my own experience of “campaigning” (in Torfaen) was both heartening and dispiriting. In practice we were we simply checking where our excellent candidate Lynne Neagle had assured support – but we did not campaign to persuade people to vote Labour by discussing issues on the doorstep.<br /><br />But, if Labour is to win in 2020, the Party has to welcome in the hundreds of thousands of new members inspired by Jeremy’s politics and must campaign for these policies – not simply rely on historic Labour loyalty.<br /><br />Hopefully the encouraging (English) results of May 5th will see off further attempts to undermine Jeremy’s leadership. What we now need to do is recapture the spirit of 1945 – when hundreds of thousands of Labour supporters argued for Labour’s policies at doorsteps and workplaces. We were not reliant then on a friendly media and there’s no reason suppose than 2020 will be different.<br /><br />This post first appeared on <a href="https://johncoxfortorfaen.wordpress.com/author/no2austerity/">John’s blog</a>.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-63501717458906258252016-05-17T13:43:00.002+01:002016-05-17T13:44:15.985+01:00Reflections on the 2016 Welsh General Election - by Sophie WilliamsAlthough the deadlock at the Senedd now seems to be nearing its end, Wales will have been without a government for almost two weeks after the 2016 Welsh General Election. Although 29 seats out of 60 is by no means our worst electoral result since devolution, the lack of a clear majority requires cooperation with other like-minded political parties. This need not always be a negative development in itself; however, it requires sufficient desire on all sides to reach the necessary agreement. <br /><br />Although it is still early days and full result analysis has yet to be undertaken, it is prudent to consider how we have come to be here and the factors conditioning our current state of limbo. These factors are multiple in nature and will vary, constituency by constituency and ward by ward, with local issues, particularly relationships with local councils, certainly having played a part. However, some key trends can be identified. <br /><br />Firstly, we must look at the nature of the big picture campaign. Jeremy Corbyn achieved an historic victory in the Labour Party leadership last September, in which he won over the vast majority of the Labour party membership (and, indeed, many thousands of people outside the party) with his clear vision for doing things differently. Yet out on the campaign trail in Wales, Jeremy was rarely to be seen. Despite proving popular with Welsh party members (9 Welsh CLPs nominated Jeremy for leader and thousands more personally voted for him), Jeremy visited only a select few constituencies, concentrating on seats like Aberavon and Ogmore where the Labour vote is arguably stronger than in other areas, for example Cardiff North and Cardiff Central. <br /><br />The steel crisis is a clear factor, yet it does not give the full story. News items reported that Jeremy had been ‘banned’ from Wales. Although the exact terminology was rebutted by Carwyn, there is no question that the Welsh media were allowed to think, and to report, that the Welsh Labour leadership consider Jeremy an electoral liability. In his absence, wider messages of being halfway through a 10 year plan not only lacked inspiration and smacked of the oft-repeated Tory trope, but were also self-defeating: even if a win is achieved in 2016, what will the message be in 2020? We’ve finished our 10-year plan, please let us start another? <br /><br />Organisational issues complemented the lacklustre nature of the wider campaign. How we campaign and the information on which we base our canvassing has not changed to accord with new technologies and a politically disengaged electorate. In many areas, the same core activists who can always be relied upon saw each other day after day, as constituencies struggled to engage the many thousands of new party members and supporters in traditional campaigning activity. How we derive our data and where we target our resources must be the subject of serious investigation, as strong political messages can still be hampered by poor or complacent activity on the ground. <br /><br />We must consider the twin challenges of Plaid Cymru, on the one hand, and UKIP on the other. Both made inroads into the Labour vote in post-industrial communities in the South Wales Valleys and North East Wales, albeit for very different reasons. The purchase of the self-presentation of Plaid Cymru as a ‘Welsh’ party, concerned only with Welsh issues requires examination: do voters respond positively to this and do they vote Plaid Cymru because they believe that only Plaid Cymru have a right to govern for Welsh people? Do we challenge UKIP strongly enough on the tough issues like immigration, and have we sufficiently explored why traditional Labour voters are turning to this rag-tag populist band of failed Tories? Is this simply a turn away from Labour rather than actively ascribing to the UKIP policy platform, and if so, what are we doing to revitalise our image? <br /><br />Finally, we must look at the reasons why, after 17 years and five elections, voter turnout for Welsh General Elections continues to hover around 45% of the electorate. In Scotland on the same day, the turnout was 55.6%. Welsh turnout figures can be further compared with those of other European ‘stateless nations’: turnout in the Basque Parliament elections in 2012 was 64%, while turnout in last year’s Catalan elections was 75%. These are undoubtedly crude indicators which must be contextualised and broken down by category; however, there is clearly more work to do to convince the Welsh electorate that participating in a Welsh General Election should be at least as important to them as participating in a UK General Election. <br /><br />Following next month’s EU Referendum (after which there may be either no change or complete overhaul) and next year’s local Council elections, we face a three-year election-free period. Perhaps part of that time may be spent considering some of these issues, as we look towards the 2020 UK elections. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-29305523551167621042016-05-17T11:44:00.001+01:002016-05-17T11:56:21.072+01:00Welsh Labour survives another election - by Nick DaviesOn the face of it, the fifth election to the Welsh Assembly could have been worse for Labour; the result was certainly better than predicted. Only one seat was lost: Rhondda, where Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood ousted former minister, Leighton Andrews. Plaid’s other main target, Llanelli, stayed Labour. Labour held all the Tories’ targets: Cardiff North,Vale of Glamorgan, Gower and Vale of Clwyd. The main story was the Tories’ failure, rooted in Westminster’s complacent response to the steel crisis and the ineptitude of their leader, Andrew RT Davies, to match their own expectations. If the Welsh Tories wanted the election to be a referendum on NHS Wales, they got it: voters took a look at the dysfunctional chaos presided over by Jeremy Hunt, noted that in Wales there was no junior doctors’ strike, and duly came to the necessary conclusion. Driven back to the coasts and borders, their total number of seats went down to 11 from 14, and their share of the vote went down from 2011 and 2015.<br /><br />Notwithstanding the dramatically tied vote for First Minister when the Assembly met for the first time, it now seems certain that Labour, with 29 out of 60 seats, will form another minority government, probably involving case-by-case consultation with Plaid Cymru, now the second biggest party, and more reliable support from the one remaining Liberal Democrat, Kirsty Williams. Fifteen of the new Labour group of 29 are women (despite Welsh Labour reneging on its own policy on all-women shortlists to ease former MP Huw Irranca-Davies into the Ogmore Assembly seat). However, the women tend to occupy the less safe seats. Across the whole Assembly, there are now three openly lesbian or gay AMs.<br /><br />This result was against a backdrop of an unrelentingly hostile campaign against Jeremy Corbyn, a cynical attempt to use allegations of anti-semitism to destabilise the UK party, an ongoing smear campaign against the NHS Wales and a media narrative that Labour was ‘tired’ and it was ‘time for a change’.<br /><br />Therefore, this looks like a job (reasonably) well done.<br /><br />But all is not well. Labour’s constituency vote of 35.7% was down by 7.5% from 2011. The regional vote dropped to 31.5% from 35.4% from 2011. The drop in some constituencies was calamitous: 27.3% in Rhondda but also 24.3% in Blaenau Gwent and 18.1% in Neath. The electoral system, although generally working against a Labour majority, has its quirks: the net loss of one seat disguises somewhat the extent of the problem.<br /><br />Appallingly, lost votes went to UKIP. UKIP’s constituency vote of 12.5% was actually slightly down on the general election but that, and a regional vote of 13%, was enough to secure the party 7 seats. As in 2015, the UKIP vote in the Valleys and north-east Wales, was far higher. There was not necessarily a straight transfer of votes from Labour to UKIP; in some cases UKIP’s increase was far higher than Labour’s decline, suggesting that some UKIP supporters were previous non-voters, although possibly former Labour voters. Even in Rhondda and Blaenau Gwent, where Plaid beat or almost beat Labour, UKIP polled well.<br /><br />UKIP opportunistically exploits the feeling of abandonment felt in some post-industrial communities in which fears about immigration have not been engaged with or challenged. Less a ‘breath of fresh air’, what those voters got was a waft of foul gas: a former employer of cheap labour in ‘bunkhouses’, a failed right-wing Tory who may once have spent a weekend in Wales and Neil Hamilton, one of the most unsavoury characters ever to enter the House of Commons, who now besmirches the Senedd. Those who voted for these chancers ‘for a change’ will find it wasn’t the change they were bargaining for. Hamilton’s leadership coup suggests that UKIP’s indifference to the interests of Wales is matched only by their treachery towards each other.<br /><br />This result tells us that Welsh Labour’s hold over some of its ‘heartland’ is weak, its organisation patchy, its party bodies inactive and the task of re-engaging with working-class communities alienated by New Labour and metropolitan indifference will be a long one.<br /><br />The election campaign showed up a deeper problem. There’s been a drift away from the ‘Clear Red Water’ era when Welsh Labour defined itself positively to New Labour’s left. Welsh Labour now finds itself to the right of the UK leadership, demonstrated by its keeping a nervous distance from Jeremy Corbyn. Welcome as the healthy gender balance in the Labour group is, the group, by dint of personnel changes – retirements and recent selections – has moved to the right. Many party officials, answerable to London and appointed in the New Labour years, appear to have a markedly different agenda from the new Corbyn-McDonnell leadership and even from the majority of the Assembly Labour group.<br /><br />This problem bubbled to the surface when, in the face of the ‘anti-semitism’ media-storm, Jeremy’s planned visit to Wales was called off. Although it was made clear that Jeremy was not ‘barred’ from Wales, the media was allowed to infer that Welsh Labour regarded Jeremy as an electoral liability. <br /><br />This is not the first time that journalists have been allowed to make such an inference; there was a similar instance at the Welsh Labour conference in February. This is despite Jeremy’s huge mandate and his proven ability to connect with many of those voters Welsh Labour has shown that it cannot reach.<br /><br />Carwyn also made a public demand that Ken Livingstone be immediately expelled from the Labour party: a knee-jerk reaction, like so much of the response to Ken's remarks. While Ken’s remarks were, to say the least, not well-chosen, and he should have known, in the build-up to an election, and in the present climate, that the remarks would be used to attack Jeremy Corbyn, and the party, they were not anti-semitic (contrary to the hysterical accusations of John Mann and others) and had some basis in fact. However, Carwyn stated that his comments ‘give license [sic] to intolerance in our schools and our communities’. Even if there were substantial grounds for this view, it was surely premature to demand Ken's expulsion, in advance of any investigation and without due process. Again, in the context, it merely gave comfort to opponents of Labour and, because Livingstone, by virtue of their long association, is seen as a proxy for Jeremy Corbyn, of the leader himself. This was not just a bad judgment call in the heat of the moment but a positioning by Welsh Labour on the wrong side of a dividing line between those in the party who support Corbyn’s legitimacy as leader, and his determination to break from the Westminster consensus, and those who do not.<br /><br /><br /><em>A shorter version of this article appears in the current issue of Labour Briefing magazine.</em><br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-72000338593466818192016-05-15T19:35:00.002+01:002016-05-15T19:35:13.830+01:00Election Review - by Mike Hedges AMThis is the first election I can remember when people were looking to blame the national party leader for the result before the first vote had been cast, never mind counted. Outside Scotland, which I will discuss later, the results were somewhere between OK and good.<br />
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Winning all the mayoral elections - including London and Bristol, both of which were lost last time - would have been described as a breakthrough by political commentators in any other year, except it did not fit into the current media thinking.<br /><br />
In Wales, we lost one seat, which is attributable to the enormous publicity gained by Plaid Cymru’s leader over the last two elections. As party leaders get more publicity during election campaigns, the unintended consequence appears to be a massively increased vote in the constituency they are fighting.<br /><br />
In Scotland, although the result for Labour was better than last year, it was hugely disappointing to only win three constituency seats, but putting it into context the SNP won 7 constituency seats in 1999 and 9 constituency seats in 2003. Labour in Scotland is still paying the price for campaigning with the Tories against independence.<br /><br />
The English council elections were better than the critics expected. As Parliaments since 1979 have usually been 4 years, with 3 exceptions, also except for this year, the governing party lost parliamentary seats at that election, meaning that council gains were almost inevitable. These council elections were last fought a year into the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, when Labour made gains.<br /><br />
Six key points I have learnt, as a candidate, from the election:<br />1. All politics is local: the issues I was given on the road outside polling stations were traffic speed; apprenticeship with the council; housing repairs; blocked drains; overhanging trees and overgrowth. <br />2. Internal party disagreements hurt: the average voter pays little attention to the issue but just sees a split party.<br />3. When party leaders are given huge media coverage, it gives them a huge boost as a constituency candidate, as can be seen by the increase in the votes for both Kirsty Williams and Leanne Wood in Wales. Labour’s one defeat in Wales can be clearly linked to the profile and exposure that Leanne Wood had during the General Election and Assembly Election. This is a consequence of the “presidential” style elections we now have.<br />4. Candidates matter: victories by Jane Hutt in the Vale of Glamorgan, Julie Morgan in Cardiff North and Ann Jones in the Vale of Clwyd owed a lot to hard the work done locally, personal popularity and some close associations with the locality and key local organisations. <br />5. Social media works - but not as well as word of mouth and text messaging amongst friends and we failed to use the new members and supporters to spread our message in the workplaces, the community centres and amongst friends and neighbours.<br />6. Campaigning is important - but it has to be done over 5 years not 5 weeks. People who meet you are more likely to vote for you and more likely to vote than people who do not know you. Visits to community groups and interest groups builds your profile and you cannot be in the local paper, on local radio or on television too much. People will mainly forget what you said but just remember that you were in the media.<br /><br />
These are just personal thoughts and I am sure that others will have different opinions.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-32298133464323403512016-04-25T10:44:00.003+01:002016-04-25T10:48:56.671+01:00Trident Revisited - by Bob ClayThere is a broad consensus amongst the Westminster-bubble chattering classes, which argues that the Labour Party continues to obsess over the debates of the last century rather than looking to the future. In a strange and unintended way, it might be said that this is a major part of the difficulty when debating Trident replacement. <br />
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For many of us, there are fundamental arguments that have been broadly correct from the 1960s (or earlier) onwards. It is probably true that there was little that could ever have persuaded people like me to embrace the retention in any shape or form of the deployment of nuclear weapons by Britain. <br />
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And there were many others who took the contrary view. Hilary Benn and a range of Blairites placed themselves firmly in that tradition. <br />
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<h4>
Immortal, pointless and obsolete</h4>
But it is the supporters of nuclear weapons who now face an overwhelming argument, which tells us that the material realities of the world in 2016 (let alone in 2026 and 2036) render both the politics and the technology increasingly and dangerously obsolete. <br />
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This is well illustrated by the extraordinary debates now taking place in the International Policy Commission of Labour's National Policy Forum. At the heart of this is Hilary Benn’s insistence that any consultation with the Labour Party or wider public has to be framed around the question ‘should Britain retain an independent nuclear deterrent?’ <br />
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Other comrades have argued that this phrasing fundamentally prejudices the debate. It has been argued for decades that Trident (like Polaris before it) is neither British, nor independent nor a deterrent. <br />
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A compromise, which simply referred to Britain ‘retaining nuclear weapons’, was robustly rejected by Hilary. Even a hint of scepticism like placing the words ‘independent’ and ‘deterrent’ in quotes was unacceptable.<br />
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For those of us of the ‘old faith’, the wording makes little difference. But for a huge section of the British public and for the integrity of the debate, this represents the most massive moving of the goal posts. <br />
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It conveniently buries all the developing arguments that could almost certainly create a large public majority, and probably a House of Commons majority, for stopping the particular project that the floundering Cameron government wish to pursue. <br />
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<h4>
Wrong questions produce stupid and dangerous answers</h4>
The vote on Trident replacement should be a vote on the specific proposals that the Government brings to the House of Commons.<br />
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Therefore, it is a vote in favour of the expenditure currently forecast (which has just gone up by another £20 billion in Osborne’s recent budget. It is a vote to procure four submarines from the British Aerospace yard at Barrow in Furness, the only UK facility technically capable of constructing these boats. <br />
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Since BAE are a huge corporate monopoly the Cameron proposal will effectively commit us to the open cheque book that the British arms industry has so blatantly and corruptly dined out on for decades. This is a company with the most sordid relationships with vile regimes such as Saudi Arabia and a range of financial tentacles that facilitate significant dirty money finding its way into the coffers of the Tory Party. Yes, Hilary wants us to vote for all of that. <br />
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<br />
<h4 class="MsoNormal">
Now for the slightly more difficult bit</h4>
Those of us who find the whole concept of weapons of mass destruction completely beyond civilised discourse, have to grit our teeth and address the matters that are troubling huge swathes of opinion that are not traditionally ‘unilateralist’.<br />
<br />
Other than for the convenience of BAE and its production patterns at Barrow, is it really necessary to maintain a “continuous at sea presence” using four submarines? When was the argument that you could achieve the same outcome with three submarines decisively rebuffed? <br />
<br />
Why not abandon the whole Trident project and negotiate a joint system with France, which would involve massive savings? <br />
<br />
Or why not take one logical step further and buy the wretched things from Electric Boat / General Dynamics in Connecticutt, who turn out the American boats far more efficiently than British Aerospace? (Most of the BAE top management had to be recruited or seconded from Connecticutt years ago because the local lot were so clueless.) Those who have followed these matters will be well aware of the perpetual difficulty that, when the Americans decide to change the boats and consequently the missile specs, it causes havoc for the MOD trying to accommodate the changes. The missiles come from America anyway, so if the Americans change the missiles how does Britain change the boats?<br />
<br />
<h4>
Trident as a job retention project</h4>
Of course, none of the above matters at all if the sole purpose of this project is job retention at Barrow and at the Rolls Royce factories that make the reactors. It used to be argued, only half-jokingly, would be cheaper to give every worker dependent on Trident £1M each but this proposition could now be updated to £10M each and there would still be billions of money left over for other more useful expenditure. It only has to be a matter of time before members of UNITE and the GMB facing massive job losses and little compensation elsewhere query far more assertively what on earth some of their leadership think they have been up to. We could have nationalised and saved the entire British steel industry for a fraction of the cost of Trident. <br />
<br />
<h4>
Writing off Scotland</h4>
The whole ‘Scottish context’ has also moved to the centre of the debate. This is entirely political and not technical. Those who still argue for Trident replacement still show no sign of explaining how the Labour Party recovers ground from the SNP in Scotland by continuing to support the wrong side of the argument that contributed massively to the SNP wiping us out last year. The only coherent deduction from the Hilary Benn / Blairite position has to be that our commitment to this particular proposition is so overwhelming that we would settle for a Tory majority government for ever more rather than give up on ‘our’ nukes. <br />
<br />
<h4>
A major advance for planned obsolescence</h4>
Now we come back to the technical realities and the two rapidly emerging issues that increasingly dominate the debate in Washington and which have faced the most extensive levels of denial in London. <br />
<br />
The future of submarines is that they will be drones. It will only be a matter of time before someone will be able to site a string of drones in international water off Faslane to detect, follow and monitor the Trident boats as they come and go and with the ability to make a pre-emptive attack on them before there is any likelihood of them firing their missiles. <br />
<br />
Even more unanswerable is the increasing realisation that hackers will be able to effectively take over the satellite communications on which these weapons of mass destruction are totally dependent. <br />
<br />
On the optimistic side, one might foresee some network of ‘alternative geniuses’ who simply make it their business to render all firing of nuclear weapons impossible. (Bring it on!) But more likely, it will end up with the first successful nuclear attacks on Britain being launched from Faslane by some whacko with a laptop based in a cave in the Tora Bora mountains, or maybe, the ghetto of some European city. Well done Hilary! And no doubt if anyone is left alive in Barrow they will want to get out and vote for John Woodcock MP as soon as possible. <br />
<br />
<h4>
Labour Party policy</h4>
My view is that, from a Labour Party point of view, it is only the job retention argument that we really need to win. <br />
<br />
It is the votes of UNITE and the GMB that could prevent a substantial Party conference majority for non- replacement. It is that issue that will give ‘cover’ to anti-Corbyn Labour MPs and that can place various other unnecessary obstacles in the path of what has to be the eventual outcome. We can only deal with this by proactively pursuing the jobs, skills and community arguments. <br />
<br />
The first and fundamental question is profoundly strategic and political. The Labour Party has always been committed to multilateral nuclear disarmament (and it is only in recent months that we learn from impeccable American sources, that that nearly became a serious proposition, until Margaret Thatcher persuaded Ronald Reagan to renege on provisional agreements with Mikhail Gorbachev on the basis that it just wouldn’t do to have to admit that Michael Foot had been right all along). But the question cannot go away. Why are we claiming to pursue a goal that would rid the world of nuclear weapons, whilst at the same time claiming that that very achievement would be a disaster for the BAE workforce and community at Barrow in Furness? <br />
<br />
Moving on, what would happen if a Tory chancellor who was prepared to gamble the whole future of energy in Britain on a nuclear power station financed by the French and Chinese states, decides to save billions by buying submarines from France, the United States (or maybe, China)?!? Will Len McCluskey be running a campaign to say that there is no point in having nuclear weapons unless it provides jobs for his members? You only have to ask the questions ....!<br />
<br />
If there really was a case for continuing to procure these submarines from Barrow, then there would surely be an overwhelming logic to taking the yard into public ownership in order to maintain security, cost control and employment. But that would be contrary to the kind of Tory government motion that Hilary Benn and his admirers want to vote for. <br />
<br />
<h4>
We must start work on defence diversification</h4>
The ‘pro-Trident’ officers of Unite and the GMB have persistently argued that they cannot support non- replacement of Trident without real, serious, committed mitigation for the workforce and communities. This is the real challenge and it beggars belief that the serious work has yet to commence, even though there are willing, energetic and serious people just waiting for the go-ahead from Jeremy or Emily Thornberry or whoever it needs. We have to set up the prototype defence diversification agency with every possible level of detail, so that it hits the ground running on day one of a Labour government.<br />
<br />
This means a serious industrial understanding of what skills and advantages the yard in Barrow has and how those skills can be retained on more useful and sustainable activity. Vague talk of new green industries just won’t cut it. On the other hand, making Barrow the centre for research, development and manufacturing of drone-based underwater engineering might tick a lot of boxes, not just the manufacture of the submarines but their relationship to all sorts of fixed or mobile ocean bed industries of the future. This could be seen as a major plank in the economic / industrial policies that John McDonnell and his team are developing.<br />
<br />
Putting far more flesh on the bones of a DDA is widely understood to be the key to progress and yet, there appears to be no appetite whatsoever for getting on with it even amongst those who want to see an end to Trident and this, sadly, seems to include Jeremy Corbyn himself. Indeed, Hilary Benn appears to believe that we should refuse to do anything on this front, because it implies that we might end up opposing Trident replacement. Perhaps we should look forward to Hilary’s ultimate moment of glory as he pleads with the UN General Assembly to reject a global, multilateral ban on nuclear weapons because a British Labour Government has no idea how to re-deploy a few thousand workers!<br />
<br />
<h4>
An overwhelming responsibility, not just a token gesture</h4>
And yet, how can we continue to work for the non-replacement of Trident whilst showing such little concern for the workforce and community that will be potentially devastated by this policy? <br />
<br />
How can we continually denounce the present government for its failure to support the steel industry and its lack of any planning and intervention to mitigate the local consequences of its neo-liberal economic policies whilst we plan to deliver the same misery to Barrow? <br />
<br />
It is a demonstration of ignorance and naivety to simply make vague commitments to doing something once we are in power. Barrow will be in serious crisis from the day that a Labour government announces the cancellation of the replacement programme. <br />
<br />
So here are just a few illustrations of the work that we should have been doing for quite some time. <br />
<br />
<h4>
Bones that need flesh</h4>
What manufacturing activities can take advantage of the huge investment in the submarine building facilities at Barrow? For a start, there is the continued manufacture of submarines and probably a significant range of other underwater structures. Who is pioneering the drone technology right now? And will the UK have a capacity for these vehicles or will we be importing them? Would the large scale manufacture of civilian submarines be compatible with the continued manufacture of something like the Trident boats? Almost certainly not! For security reasons as well as a range of technical inefficiencies. So it may well be the case that if Britain is to be a significant player in this major industry of the future, Barrow will have to drop Trident in order to make way for it. <br />
<br />
Meanwhile, we need to discuss what individual compensation would be available for those workers who did lose their existing jobs and were not able to retrain for the new expanding projects on offer. The combination of redundancies being the direct result of a government decision to terminate Trident production, and the appallingly isolated geographical location of Barrow, with little else available and existing chronic levels of unemployment, would justify very generous terms. For those aged over 50, we should be considering packages of up to £50,000 at current prices for every year before retirement. This may mean that some workers receive more than half a million pounds. <br />
<br />
There should be equally generous packages for younger employees and these would need to be focussed more on serious training and redeployment with financial ‘lumps’ as a fall back. <br />
<br />
And, pausing to do the most simple and crude calculation, it can be seen that, if 10,000 workers were to receive £500,000 each on average, this would cost £5 billion, leaving about £95 billion (of current Trident planned expenditure) for other purposes. <br />
<br />
<h4>
What and where would the DDA be?</h4>
We should also firm up what the DDA would actually look like. There would be a lot of sense if it were located in Barrow, not least to ensure that those who ran it had a daily familiarity with the need to regenerate the town. Building on existing expertise around existing academic institutions, the DDA might have a research and development arm at Barrow which was on the scale of a new university. Thus, new green technology could be trialled in quality premises and workshops in the Barrow area. And we ought to be developing, already, a long list of the projects that could benefit from this approach.<br />
<br />
One last thought, just for now. Look at a map and start to understand just how isolated Barrow is. Consider the endless babble about a “northern powerhouse.” Consider the vast sums of money being invested to reduce the journey time to major cities by a few minutes due to rail electrification and other upgrading. Then think again about Barrow. If you want to make a train journey from London to Manchester, you can get a train from Euston every 20 minutes starting very early in the morning and within around 2 hours 10 minutes you are in Manchester. If you want to get a train to Barrow it will take around 4 hours. If you want to get the train to Barrow for a morning activity you can leave Euston at 5.30am, getting into Barrow at 9.50am or you can leave at 7.30am getting in just after 11.30am, i.e. for morning meetings get up in time to leave Euston at 5.30am or forget it. From 7.30am onwards the trains from Euston are only hourly with a last one at 8.30pm getting you back to Barrow at half past midnight. Travelling back to Manchester you can leave Euston on a 9.40pm train and arrive in Manchester 13 minutes before midnight.<br />
<br />
Comparisons by road travel or air flights illustrate the basic point even more starkly. Part of the DDA’s work should be to radically improve the transport infrastructure that would enable Barrow to start its long overdue journey to genuine prosperity. This in itself would be a very significant employment driver and build up a taskforce capacity for other industrial regeneration projects. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-79139738403699659992016-04-18T22:07:00.002+01:002016-04-18T22:10:53.487+01:00EU Referendum decision is all about war - by Mike BirdPossibly the single best reason for Britain’s continued membership of the European Union (EU) is that the EU prevents wars. <br />
<br />
Following war between France and Germany three times in 70 years (arguably four), the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Community">European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC)</a> was founded shortly after World War 2 by six nations, making them industrially and economically inter-dependent. It was intended to make war “not only unthinkable but materially impossible”. This principle paved the way for the formation of the EEC and then the EU, and it has worked. <br />
<br />
It is not the case that, because the last war amongst Western European nations was a long time ago, the EU has moved on and that purpose has ceased to have meaning. It is precisely because such a war is so distant in time that the EU is clearly working and still fulfilling the function of making it impossible. <br />
<br />
If we are tempted to think that war between major economic powers or “modern” nations today is very unlikely and not a possibility we need to take seriously, who thought eastern/middle Europe would fall apart so violently and completely in the last two decades? And think of Japan, who fought on the same side as Britain in World War 1, but just 21 years later was a principal enemy and fought against Britain in World War 2. <br />
<br />
We may appear to have comfortable, stable, safe lives; but look a little further and you will see the world is far more unstable and dangerous than it has ever been. Things can change dramatically and very quickly, and the direction from which war might come is unpredictable. <br />
<br />
War has almost always been a facet of British life, not one year has passed since 1914 that Britain has not been involved in armed conflict somewhere. Including today. <br />
<br />
Concerns about migration or our current economic wellbeing seem pretty much irrelevant to a decision over our membership of the EU, compared to opening up the possibility of wars in Europe. We all know the EU has, over the last 20 years, turned into a body representing capital, thus promoting profiteering and privatisation, of which the secretive TTIP deal is just the latest manifestation. But these are things a socialist UK Government can fix, co-operating with others of like mind. <br />
<br />
21 years from now puts my youngest Niece at about 40 years old, that’s plenty of time for war to return to Europe. It’s not such a distant possibility, if we pave the way by leaving the EU. <br />
<br />
It is more important to me to avoid risking my Niece, her children and countless millions others facing the tragedy and horror of war than worrying about transitory issues that can be solved if there is a will. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-25754531920999507232016-04-18T21:57:00.002+01:002016-04-18T22:00:21.819+01:00The EU Referendum: This is Now Getting Urgent - by Peter Rowlands The recent poll giving 'Leave' a lead (Opinium, Observer, April 3rd), backed up by recent poll averages showing only a small two point lead for 'Remain', means that there is now a distinct possibility that Leave could carry the day, and Brexit could happen. This is accentuated by the poll also demonstrating that the younger, more pro-EU electorate is less likely to vote than the older, more anti-EU electorate.<br />
<br />
Research (GQRR for the Fabians, <i>Independent,</i> April 3rd) shows that Labour voters could make a crucial difference, but only if Jeremy Corbyn (JC) gives a strong lead in encouraging them to vote. It has been suggested that there will be pressure on him to do this, as he has up till now not taken a strong position, although he has backed the rather lacklustre Labour campaign to remain, supported by virtually all MPs and without much sign of opposition within the wider membership.<br />
<br />
The problem is - and in this JC is representative of the views of the left - that, while the traditional opposition to the EU has diminished significantly, as leaving seemed an increasingly unviable option, it has not been replaced by any notable enthusiasm for the EU, or for what a reformed left inclined EU could become. In practice, this outlook has been passive and abstentionist. It is, I believe, quite wrong. At best it can only be justified by asserting that from a left point of view there is not likely to be any serious difference between leaving or remaining. However, there has not , since 1975, been a time at which such views were likely to have had any significant consequences, even if we had held a referendum on the EU constitution.<br />
<br />
This has now fundamentally changed. If, as appears to be the case, Labour votes, and JC calling for them, are crucial to winning for Remain, then it is vital that this happens. The only valid argument against this is to demonstrate that there is no particular disadvantage for the left in leaving, or advantage in staying in. I do not believe that any such arguments can be credibly made, and will try and explain why.<br />
<br />
While there is still a residual left anti EU tradition the overwhelming impetus for Leave has come from the populist/nationalist right in UKIP, the Tory right and the right-wing media. Unlike 1975, there is little left visibility, and a positive vote for Leave would represent a significant victory for forces of the right to the right of the present government (yes, that is possible) who would celebrate with a distasteful orgy of flag waving imperial/wartime nostalgia to be followed by the serious business of attacking the working class by removing all those EU benefits that stood in the way of ’labour flexibility’. As the CBI predicts, there could be job losses of almost a million and a 5% reduction in GDP by 2020 (speech by CBI director, March 21st, based on research by PWC). Foreign owned firms (that includes all vehicle manufacturers) could relocate to the EU to avoid tariffs. But the appeal to the ‘national interest’ would be powerful, and would be likely to adversely affect the strength of and support for the Labour Party and wider labour movement for some time. It is also the case that Brexit could significantly weaken the EU and lead to its possible break up, with neo-fascist parties such as the French National Front becoming more dominant.<br />
<br />
Even if no proposals for reform were made, Remain would almost certainly be a better proposition than the scenario just painted, with social and employment rights probably more secure and high levels of unemployment probably avoided. But of course the EU, which has in the last 20 years moved in a more neoliberal direction, needs significant reform. Labour must highlight the things that Cameron and most of the Remain camp are not interested in – more democracy for the EU Parliament, an extension of employment and social rights, positive policies for growth and employment and greater control over big business. <br />
<br />
It cannot be denied that there are enormous problems in the EU, even without the current refugee crisis, mainly stemming from the Euro, and these must be overcome so that the peripheral countries are not condemned to depression and unemployment in perpetuity. But there are plenty of parties in the EU that are committed to change, and to the sorts of policies outlined above. This is to some extent true of the established social democratic parties, grouped mainly within the umbrella Party of European Socialists, most of which succumbed to some degree of neoliberalism in the 90s, like New Labour, but some of which have since moved back to more left wing positions, and the newer parties of the left, grouped mainly within the umbrella Party of the European Left, which include not only new parties like Podemos and Syriza but more established parties such as Die Linke in Germany. With the exception of some of the traditional Communist parties almost all of these parties favour remaining in a reformed EU rather than leaving, and have developed policies accordingly.<br />
<br />
We should emphatically join them. It is not so much a question of international solidarity, but because it is the right, indeed the only way to go.There is unlikely to be any basis for left advance in an independent UK. Nationalism and global capital will always be stronger. But the EU is potentially big and strong enough to allow real advances for the left. It may not happen, but there is no other way forward.<br />
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It would therefore be a monumental disaster for the left if that possibility was summarily cut short by a win for Leave on June 23rd. We must campaign strongly to see that that does not happen. Come on Jeremy, you know it makes sense!<br />
<br />
This article also appears on <a href="http://www.leftfutures.org/">Left Futures</a>. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-6642163998854469702016-03-17T23:00:00.000+00:002016-03-17T23:00:03.262+00:00The EU discussion at the WLG meeting on March 5th by Peter RowlandsI could not make this, but thanks to Nick for producing a summary of the discussion. Fairly predictably this appeared to encompass most of the positions on the left, with a majority, seemingly without much enthusiasm, supporting IN on the grounds that BREXIT would disadvantage the left. This is true, but it is a negative position; few on the left now advocate BREXIT, but most share this negative attitude, including, I am sorry to say, JC himself.<br /><br />
I think this is all quite wrong. While there is much at fault with the EU it is not unreformable and we should seek to change it alongside our friends in the range of left and centre left parties in the EU, most of whom do want to remain in a reformed EU.<br /><br />Indifference to the EU is wrong, but it is doubly so when faced with a referendum that polls show is rather close. If we wake up on June 24th and find that the Brexiteers have won we will only have ourselves to blame. There is a good left wing case for IN and I hope that Jeremy and John can make it in the coming months. Alan Johnson and the current Labour campaign certainly aren’t.<br /><br />There is no future for an independent socialist UK. It is not possible. It probably wasn’t in 1983, it certainly isn’t today. We cannot ‘build Jerusalem in England’s green and pleasant land’. BREXIT would mean that Scotland would rejoin the EU anyway, and so would we in Wales if we had any sense, although the likelihood of a significant vote for UKIP in the forthcoming Assembly elections indicates that this is lacking in certain quarters.There would be a huge rise in unemployment as foreign firms relocated in the EU, big capitalism would name its terms and they wouldn’t be pleasant. The apparent regaining of sovereignty would in fact be the reverse, as there would be less real control over our affairs, but this would be waved away as the new Conservative /UKIP coalition took office ( with Boris as PM ) amid an orgy of distasteful nationalist and imperialist nostalgia. The right would be in the ascendant, but BREXIT would also help the not inconsiderable forces of the right in the EU, from the ‘respectable’ fascists of the French National Front to the real Nazi article in the shape of the appalling Jobbik and Golden Dawn. These people want to break up the EU and go back to the Europe of the 1930s. BREXIT could help them succeed.<br /><br />There is surprisingly no mention in Nick’s account of the left in the EU, but it is in fact a substantial and growing force. Many of the social democratic parties, like Labour here, lost their way in the 1980s and moved to the neo liberal right, but partly as a result of that new parties of the left emerged, most successfully in Germany as Die Linke, but also in Finland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Spain, and more recently in Greece as Syriza and Spain again as Podemos. Most of the newer left parties do not want to leave the EU, although they are highly critical of it, and while most of the social democratic parties are still floundering they are in the main moving towards a more left wing approach.<br />
<br />
The umbrella group representing the left parties increased its representation substantially in 2014, while the social democrats held their own. The big losses were by the conservative parties to the right wing populists like UKIP here and the French National Front.<br />
<br />Comrades are invited to have a look at the policies of the Party of the European Left, (Socialists and Communists), the Party of European Socialists, (social democratic parties) and the European Trade Union confederation. Policies generally favour an end to austerity and policies for growth and full employment, a renewed emphasis on ‘social Europe ‘with improved employment and social rights, greater democracy and transparency with more powers for the parliament, and increased curbs and controls on big business. (This is crucial. Huge global corporations can only be controlled by an entity the size of the EU. Contrast the treatment of errant banks by the UK and the US).These are the sorts of policies that Labour surely supports.<br />There are huge problems in the EU, mainly to do with the Euro, and heightened by the refugee crisis. But it still has the greatest concentration of left wing parties and support for what they stand for in the world, despite the dilution and distortion that many have undergone. It would be unthinkable to walk away. It is not just a question of international solidarity. It is a question of how we, the UK left, make progress. There is no possibility of an independent socialist UK. A socialist Europe, based on a reformed EU, is a possibility. BREXIT would have the effect of significantly reducing that possibility. We should therefore campaign strongly to remain.<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-37122070100091586552016-03-08T23:08:00.001+00:002016-03-08T23:17:15.739+00:00The left and the EU referendum debate by Nick Davies<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">At the
Welsh Labour Grassroots meeting on 5<sup> </sup>March, there was a discussion
on the stance socialists in Wales should adopt towards the EU referendum and
the EU in general. A summary of that discussion is set out below, the purpose
of which is to stimulate and develop future discussion. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">One
view was that the EU is fundamentally pro-capitalist and pro-privatisation
of public services. It is also undemocratic to the extent that it is incapable
of reform. We should therefore vote to leave, it was argued, yet there is no
progressive 'leave’ campaign in existence. The campaigns by UKIP and the Tory
right are seeking to make the referendum about immigration, as a result of
which the referendum campaign will be a carnival of reaction.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Other
comrades had therefore concluded that, while the EU is indeed pro-capitalist,
pro-privatisation, pro-austerity and anti-democratic, we should vote to stay in
because of the possibility of positive change and because the UK labour
movement would not be strengthened, and would very possibly be
weakened, by ‘Brexit’.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">There
was general agreement with the critique of the EU as it currently exists and
some comrades made particular reference to the additional threat to public
services, and the ability of elected government to act, presented by TTIP.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">It was
pointed out that there are environmental directives and workplace regulations
which emanate from the EU and which are beneficial but, given TTIP in
particular, it is difficult to know whether to vote to leave or remain.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Given
the predisposition of the Tory government towards free markets and deregulation,
however, it was also argued that TTIP (or something very like it) would be a
danger whether the UK is 'in' or 'out'. Leaving the EU would not, in itself, be
an escape from the kind of threats presented by TTIP.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">The
EU has come a long way from noble ideals of its foundation and, under the
impact of unpopular austerity policies and migration issues, it could implode. Whatever
the original social-democratic/c<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>hristian-democratic
consensus underlying the original union, austerity is now built into the
project, as reinforced by a succession of treaties.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Therefore,
even if the left should back the campaign to stay 'in', it needs also to call
for the tearing up of the treaties of Brussels, Lisbon, Nice,
Maastricht, and Rome etc.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">The
Labour leadership is therefore missing a trick, it was argued, by being
insufficiently active on the EU issue and the referendum and failing to put
pressure on Cameron but at least Labour is not campaigning side by side with
Cameron, a lesson learned from the referendum campaign in Scotland. The
situation in the Tory party and the splits in British capitalism on the issue
are such that it is cannot be ruled out that the referendum will not take
place.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Finally,
it was observed that although there was broad agreement within WLG on the
undemocratic, pro-capitalist, free market nature of the EU, there was much less
agreement, and a lot of uncertainty, was whether there should be a vote to
leave or remain, given the reactionary nature of much of the 'leave'
campaign, the benefits that have accrued to Wales as a result of EU membership,
the likelihood, or otherwise, of success in changing the culture and structure
of the EU and how this could be brought about. For many, the decision will be
one of tactics rather than principle.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Further c</span>ontributions to this debate a<span style="font-family: inherit;">re strongly<span style="font-family: inherit;"> encourag<span style="font-family: inherit;">ed.</span></span></span> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-48571764401517103272016-03-08T22:43:00.000+00:002016-03-08T22:50:15.631+00:00Welsh Labour MPs Feel The Heat on Syria by Nick Davies<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";">That in a free vote, only 66
Labour MPs in a largely hostile Parliamentary Labour Party voted with the
Tories to bomb Syria, was an early success for Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
The votes of Welsh Labour MPs contributed to this. This is all the more
surprising given that there’s little Clear Red Water in evidence at Westminster, most
Welsh Labour MPs being on the right of the party and lacking the
radical instincts of some of their counterparts in the Senedd.</span></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";">In the end only four Welsh MPs
voted with the Tories. In the days leading up to the vote, many MPs, as in
England, felt the weight of opinion from their CLP members and
constituents on the issue. Some were no doubt persuaded that the
case for bombing did not stack up, some were no doubt wary of any military
response, having had their fingers burned on Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Some
felt obliged to vote against bombing given the weight of the views of their
constituents and members.</span></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";">Reportedly, Owen Smith, Shadow
Work and Pensions Secretary, was minded at the PLP meeting a few days before
the vote to support bombing. That he voted against says something about the
pressure he must have been under from his Pontypridd members. Swansea
West MP Geraint Davies, who voted for the invasion of Iraq and has never been a
natural rebel, voted against the government, 85% of his constituency members
who gave their view having advised that he should.</span></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";">Thus, pressure can be
applied to Labour’s parliamentary caucus to heed the views of the members who
work to send them to Westminster. The rank and file members – excluded, marginalised
and disregarded in the New Labour years – must be the necessary counterweight
to the largely hostile PLP, in support of the Corbyn-McDonnell leadership.</span></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";">What of the Welsh MPs who did
vote to bomb Syria? Chris Bryant (Rhondda) is an open Blairite somewhat
surprisingly given a job by Jeremy Corbyn. Wayne David (Caerphilly) is another frequent
Corbyn critic. Something of a surprise was Susan Elan Jones, not known as
a strong right-winger. Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South & Penarth) went on to
excel himself by orchestrating his on-air resignation with the BBC, a
piece of destructive vanity which may damage his standing with his local party
more than it damaged Jeremy Corbyn.</span></span><span style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , "sans-serif";">This article first appeared
Labour Briefing magazine.</span></span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-70566184542095348362015-10-30T07:56:00.003+00:002015-10-31T11:32:28.640+00:00Democracy and leadership in the Labour Party - by Mike Hedges AM<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Immediately after the defeat at
the General election in 2015, Ed Milliband resigned. What if he had decided to
stay on? We do not know.</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">What we do
know is what happened in Scotland.Jim Murphy was elected Leader in October
2014. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
Following his defeat and Labour’s rout in Scotland, Murphy said he would remain
Leader of Scottish Labour. First to call for Murphy to resign from being leader
was unseated MP, Ian Davidson, who said, "Morally, as the man who has led
us to the biggest ever disaster that Labour has suffered in Scotland, he can’t
continue." Then Pat Rafferty of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Union" title="Unite the Union"><span lang="EN">Unite</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">called for Murphy's resignation, followed by Kevin
Lindsay of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASLEF" title="ASLEF"><span lang="EN">ASLEF.</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Then Neil Findlay MSP resigned from Murphy's shadow
cabinet, citing the election results, followed by<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span> MSP<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Rowley" title="Alex Rowley"><span lang="EN">Alex Rowley</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
The decision of whether he should continue was made by the Scottish Labour
Party Executive. Jim Murphy narrowly survived a<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vote_of_no_confidence" title="Vote of no confidence"><span lang="EN">vote
of no confidence</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">by 17 votes
to 14. Three of the 17 votes in support of Murphy included that of Murphy
himself, that of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Murray_(British_politician)" title="Ian Murray (British politician)"><span lang="EN">Ian Murray MP</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">, Shadow
Secretary of State for Scotland and Labour's only MP in Scotland, and that of a
Labour<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peerage" title="Peerage"><span lang="EN">Peer</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">. Murphy then announced on 16 May 2015 that he intended
to step down as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party in June. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
In 2010 Gordon Brown did not resign until he had failed to negotiate a
coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown announced on 10 May
2010 that he would stand down as Labour Leader 4 days after the election defeat
that left a hung parliament. Am I the only one who thinks a new acting
leader would have had a greater chance of successfully negotiating a Labour led
coalition? Gordon Brown could have gone to the National Executive and he would
almost certainly have been successful in continuing as Leader. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
I believe that there is a moral obligation on anyone who leads a party to
electoral defeat to resign immediately. If you have been rejected by the
electorate then I believe you have lost the authority to lead the party. At a
more local level, the vast majority of the Labour Group in Swansea wanted to
remove the Leader of the Labour Group who was also Council leader. To remove
the Labour group leader, they needed to get a written request for a leadership
election signed by two third of the group.</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">This was a lengthy process. Whilst the
removal of a Leader is not and should not be something undertaken lightly,
making it incredibly difficult also does not help. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The mechanism of electing the
leader of the Labour party at Westminster, Scotland and, I believe, Wales by
one member one vote is highly democratic. The party members choose the leader
of their party, as almost 60% of those that voted, voted to elect Jeremy
Corbyn.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 13.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Two things I learnt from this election. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Firstly,
allowing MPs to be the gatekeepers of who gets onto the ballot paper came very
close to keeping Jeremy off the ballot paper. Someone who was overwhelmingly
elected by the members nearly did not make the ballot paper. Why cannot members
either self nominate or have a proposer and seconder? Whilst, with the first
system, all MPs could stand and under the second system in excess of 50, what
it would do is widen the debate and allow everyone a chance. My expectation is
that under that system a few more - perhaps up to six - would have stood.
Surely democracy means you should have the maximum possible choice?</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Secondly,
members are enthused by the chance to hear a debate inside the party.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span> When I spoke in favour of Jeremy
at the Swansea meeting I was amazed, as I know others were, at the number
attending and the enthusiasm generated. By the time Cardiff was reached, the
number in attendance was huge. A bus full came up from Swansea and there were
people from all over south Wales present. Party membership in Swansea East is
at its highest during the 40 years I have been involved. There are far more
members that in the run up to the 1997 general election.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">I want to now turn to internal party democracy and
discuss West Glamorgan County Council, Swansea Council and the National
Assembly Wales. Two bodies I have been previously been elected to and one I am
currently a member of. In the days of West Glamorgan County Council and the
early days of Swansea Council or decisions were taken collectively by the
Labour Group. Whilst the Leader and committee chairs would have agreed the
report with senior officers and would report to the Labour group, the final
decision was the Labour group as a whole. They could and sometimes did reject
or amend the recommendation. Also, members collectively made recommendations at
sub committee that were then recommended either to full Council or to a
committee of all Councillors. When the cabinet system was introduced, decisions
became delegated to Cabinet members and then on in many cases to Council
officers. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
Turning to the Assembly: this works on the system of a Leader directly elected
by the wider party membership but with the Assembly members acting as the
gatekeeper on who can stand. At the last election, won by Carwyn Jones, a
Labour group of 26 members and a candidate needed to be nominated by six
members meaning that the maximum number of candidates was four, three actually
stood.Do we need Assembly members to act as gatekeeper? Why cannot a system
that provides greater choice be brought in?Whilst we may not have a leadership
election for sometime, a system is needed to be in place that makes it easier
to get on the ballot paper in Wales, as much as it is needed at Westminster.The
First Minister has immense power, brought about by being the Leader of the
ruling group and directly elected by the membership.The Leader has absolute
control.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>They choose the Cabinet.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>They can appoint to the cabinet who
they want.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>They can remove any
cabinet member at any time via a reshuffle. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br />
As you will have seen, there are other posts that are in the gift of the First
Minister such as chair of the European monitoring committee.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>How did I find out that Jenny Rathbone
had been removed? David Deans, the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>Western
Mail</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>journalist, told me.
Whilst I am pleased Mick Antoniw has been appointed to the post, how did I find
out about the appointment? No, it was not the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>Western
Mail...</i>it was the BBC. I still have not been told about either event
officially. There is no reason for the First Minister to tell me. He is not
accountable to me as a member of the Labour Group. He is not accountable to the
Labour group collectively or individually. His only accountability is to the
Welsh Executive.We need to achieve two things: firstly, to make it easier for
candidates to get on the ballot paper. Secondly to have greater accountability.
This is a debate we need now when there is no leadership election imminent,
rather than wait until we have a vacancy.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<i><span lang="EN" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">This is the text of Mike's contribution to a roundtable discussion at the Welsh
Labour Grassroots AGM in Cardiff on 17 October 2015. </span></i></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-54368928516893985662015-09-28T22:21:00.001+01:002015-09-28T22:30:30.815+01:00"It was New Labour that won" - the New Labour myth. By Mike Hedges AM<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">In 1992, the
Conservatives won their fourth consecutive general election, despite Labour having
expectations that they would win. Immediately after the
defeat, Neil Kinnock and Roy Hattersley resigned, to be replaced by John Smith
and Margaret Beckett.</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Pundits were predicting that Labour could never win and
that we would have a Conservative government for ever; then came Black
Wednesday on September 16, 1992, which was a humiliation for the Conservative
Government under John Major. It would never recover from the blow to its
credibility, nor regain the trust of those voters it had shocked and alienated by
putting up interest rates so high, even if only temporarily.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Economically, for the country, it was a release. Britain
was in control of its monetary policy once more; the pound was devalued,
helping to pull the economy out of recession and heralding a period of growth
that lasted until the banking crisis of 2008.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">A Gallup poll on the 7<sup>th</sup> September 1992, the
week before John Smith became leader, showed a Conservative lead of 2% but by 28<sup>th</sup>
September, after Black Wednesday, it had changed into a Labour lead of 7%. When
John Smith died in May 1994, the Labour lead was consistently over 20% in the
opinion polls, compared to the 12.5% it achieved under Tony Blair at the 1997 general
election.</span><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">The
Conservatives lost economic credibility on Black Wednesday and defeat at the general election became inevitable for them, whoever the Labour leader was.</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> However,
if Black Wednesday was not enough, we also had<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>a series of scandals; party disunity over the Europrean Union</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">; and the desire of the electorate for change after 18 years of Tory rule.</span><br />
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"><tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"><td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.2pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Year</b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.2pt;" valign="top" width="98"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Labour
vote</b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.15pt;" valign="top" width="74"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">No
of seats</b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 66.3pt;" valign="top" width="88"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">%
vote</b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.05pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Change
in %vote</b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Turnout</b></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Change
in turnout</b></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.2pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">1997</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.2pt;" valign="top" width="98"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">13,518,167</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.15pt;" valign="top" width="74"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">413</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 66.3pt;" valign="top" width="88"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">43.4%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.05pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">9%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">71.3%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">-6.4%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.2pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2001</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.2pt;" valign="top" width="98"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">10,724,953</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.15pt;" valign="top" width="74"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">403</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 66.3pt;" valign="top" width="88"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">40.7%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.05pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">-2.7</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">59.4%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">-11.9%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.2pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2005</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.2pt;" valign="top" width="98"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">9,552,436</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.15pt;" valign="top" width="74"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">355</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 66.3pt;" valign="top" width="88"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">35.2%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.05pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">-5.5%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">61.4%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.2pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2010</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.2pt;" valign="top" width="98"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">8,606,517</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.15pt;" valign="top" width="74"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">258</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 66.3pt;" valign="top" width="88"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">29.0%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.05pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">-6.2%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">65.1%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">3.7%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.2pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2015</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 73.2pt;" valign="top" width="98"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">9,347,304</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 55.15pt;" valign="top" width="74"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">232</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 66.3pt;" valign="top" width="88"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">30.4%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.05pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">1.4</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">66.1</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 68.1pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: small;">1.0%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">As the table
above shows, following the Labour landslide of 1997, there has been a continual
loss of seats and - until 2010 - votes at every election. Turnout collapsed at the
2001 election and, despite making postal votes available on demand, turnout still
is substantially under the 1997 figure.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">From May
1994 until 2010, Labour was led by the two architects of New Labour: Tony Blair
and Gordon Brown. During that time, 158 seats were lost; 14.4% or approximately
1/3 of the 1997 vote was also lost; and turnout fell by approximately 6%.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">In summary:
New Labour inherited a winning position and has overseen the continual
reduction of the number of seats at each election since 1997. I believe a
better way to describe what happened - as opposed to the New Labour spin - is:</span></div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">the Tories lost
the confidence of the electorate due to Black Wednesday;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Labour won a
landslide but failed to fulfil the aspirations of its voters, many of whom
became disillusioned - either staying home or voting for third parties in
subsequent elections;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Labour lost economic credibility following the
banking crisis in 2008 and thus lost in 2010;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Tony Blair
was in the right place at the right time. <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>Napoleon
Bonaparte said, "Give me lucky generals"; so, with politics: "Give me a lucky leader."</span></li>
</ul>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-25244273705526289442015-09-05T09:01:00.001+01:002015-09-05T09:03:51.987+01:00How the Labour Left is organised and the NPF elections by Peter Rowlands<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">As
Red Labour have observed, why elect Jeremy Corbyn as leader and then allow the
NPF to be taken over by the right. However, there is a distinct possibility of
Labour doing no better, or even worse than two years ago when right wing slates
generally triumphed in these elections. Then it was only Wales and the
Yorkshire region that achieved a majority of the four seats, with two in
Eastern, one in three others and none in five. This year we have only managed
to put up a full slate in six of the eleven regions, and in two of the five
others have conceded the youth election to Labour First by not putting up
candidates. Clearly the focus on the Corbyn campaign has been at the expense of
this election.</span>
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">This
poses the wider question of how the left is organised in the Labour Party, and
despite the above it is true that the left did well in the NEC elections last
year, partly due to the failure of the right to agree a common slate. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">There
are left organisations, some of which are organised locally, publications,
blogs and an e-mail network, and this has
obviously all contributed to the rise of Jeremy Corbyn, although the extent to
which that is so is difficult to establish. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The
main, indeed the only general left organisation for the UK is the Labour
Representation Committee (LRC), particularly since Compass ceased to have a
Labour orientation. It has a monthly publication, Labour Briefing, no longer
independent since 2012 after a bitter row with the Campaign for Labour Party
Democracy (CLPD),<i><span style="color: red;">
</span></i>which specialises in constitutional change and is always very active
at conference, but is a significant tendency in its own right. CLPD does not
organise locally, but LRC does, with 17 local branches in England, leaving
Scotland and Wales to the Campaign for Socialism and Welsh Labour Grassroots respectively,
neither of which organise locally to my knowledge.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The
only other organisation on the left of any size is Red Labour, which has
seemingly come from nowhere in the last two years, although it exists only on
Facebook and does not seem to have a centre or a conference. Nevertheless, it
boasts 46 branches, some of which are quite active, others dormant or little
more than a facebook address.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Other
publications include Tribune, Chartist, and Renewal. The leading blog is Left
Futures, but others are worthwhile including Socialist Unity and Socialist
Economic Bulletin.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Other
than that there are some local groupings that are not tied to any of the main
groups and a range of informal groupings and networks in CLPs, Labour groups
and trade unions. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Whatever
happens on September 12<sup>th</sup>, the left is now a more significant force than
it was four months ago and a new organisation that is able to unite it and
carry it forward is urgently needed.</span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-69448643310619724112015-08-24T21:31:00.000+01:002015-08-24T21:34:46.672+01:00What are taxes for? By Mike Hedges AM<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Since being
elected in 2011, most of the discussions I have heard in the Senedd have been
around reducing taxes in order to grow the Welsh economy, rather than the need
for taxation to pay for public services. When you look at the cost of private
education and private health care, it puts into perspective the value for money
we get from our taxation system</span><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Taxation
exists to pay for public services. Too many people believe that we can have the
same quality of public services as Scandinavia but have a taxation system which
is more like that of the USA. It is not by random chance that those countries with the
highest tax levels have the best public services and those with lowest tax
levels the poorest. It is because taxation is necessary to raise the money to
pay for the public services we all need.</span><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Quality
public services - be they health, education or infrastructure - come at a
substantial cost to the public purse and the only way of paying for them is via
taxation. Taxation can be on income, profit, consumption/ expenditure or value
of land and property - or a combination of all of them. But if people want quality
public services, these are the taxes needed to pay for them. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Whilst nobody likes to pay taxes, and some rich individuals and multi-national companies are expert at reducing their tax payments, providing
quality public services means that, if some people do not pay then either
public services suffer or others have to make up the shortfall. Every time tax
cuts are made, they are shown as beneficial and they appear to be to those who
are paying less tax and have more money in their pocket. <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>The effect that these reductions in government income have on public expenditure on
services such as health, local government and education are completely ignored
until the cuts start affecting people.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The more difficult a tax is to avoid, the more unpopular it is with
the rich and powerful. By far the most difficult taxes to avoid are the
property taxes (non-domestic rates and council tax). There are no tricks, such
as using internal company transactions or having non-domiciled status, to avoid
paying the tax. The buildings - whether they are residential, manufacturing, commercial
or retail - are not movable and the tax becomes liable on the property and has to
be paid.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">If we desire quality public services then we have to
pay for them</span><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">, via taxation</span><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">. This is not the start of a campaign for higher taxes but it is
linking taxation with expenditure. Remember the old adage: you only get what you
pay for.</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-33262513366194909562015-08-19T17:53:00.000+01:002015-08-19T17:59:28.213+01:00The 2015 Election: Some Facts and Figures - by Peter Rowlands<div style="text-align: left;">
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;">It
is, unfortunately, not a caricature to say that much comment on the recent
election has consisted of vigorous assertion by the Labour Party right that the
programme was too left wing, countered equally vigorously by the left that it
was not left wing enough! Supporting evidence has been scanty, beyond the cry
of ‘1983’ from the right, countered by ‘1945’ from the left. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The
leadership campaign has, if anything, made this situation worse, with fear of a
Corbyn win having elicited some desperate responses from the right, and from
the other candidates,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and, while Corbyn
himself, to his very great credit, has stuck to an elaboration of policy, many
of his supporters on the blogosphere have sunk to the level of their opponents.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">It
is surely only by a rational analysis, rather than blind assertion, that Labour
can again successfully promote itself in 2020 or before, and this article looks at some of the more
considered evidence and opinion about the recent election than that referred to
above. Much of this has not received the attention it should have done,
although there will hopefully be a renewed focus on this when the official ‘Learning Lessons’ enquiry<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is published
next month.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The
most important areas of investigation can, I think, be reasonably grouped under
these main headings:</span></div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How
the UK voted, by region, age, gender, class and other relevant distinctions.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How
the new electoral situation has changed Labour’s prospects.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">How
potential and actual Labour voters viewed the party’s appeal.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">The
impact of UKIP and the Greens.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Why
Scotland moved from Labour to the SNP.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Why
the pollsters got it wrong again. </span></li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">I
shall cite some of the main findings under these headings and comment briefly
on each.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">How
we voted</span></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The biggest single change was Scotland, where Labour’s loss of 40
seats was a huge blow, which will not be easily reversed, and obviously makes it
much more difficult for Labour to gain a majority. It also means that we now
have three different electoral systems – Northern Ireland, which was always
different, and now Scotland, because of its domination by the SNP. The main
system is what remains, in England and Wales. Here there were significant
variations between the main regions, with London and the three Northern regions
experiencing the biggest swing to Labour, with small to negative swings
elsewhere, including, inexplicably, Wales. However, extra Labour votes were
largely at their strongest in seats already held by Labour, and much weaker in
the small towns and suburban areas that Labour needed to take. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The
Lib-Dem vote went to Labour more than any other party (24%), but the Tories
got, crucially, not much less at 20%, and the Greens 11%. Over 65s were twice
as Conservative than Labour, with a much higher turnout, while voters became
progressively more Labour as they became younger, but with a progressively
lower turnout. Women, except the over 65s, were more Labour than men,
particularly the young. There was some reversion to social class alignment, but
the middle class Labour vote largely held, but turnout was much higher among
the more Conservative inclined social groups. The Conservatives lost heavily to
UKIP, as did Labour to a lesser extent, mainly
from the older white male working class. Labour remains strong among BAME
voters, but the Conservatives have increased their share here. Workers in the
private sector are more Conservative, those in the public sector Labour, but
less so. Those with more qualifications tended to Labour, those with fewer to
the Conservatives.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">It
is clear that, unless Labour can either increase its turnout among the under 35s
and the D/E social groups, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or increase
its support among the over 65s, and preferably both, then winning is going to
be very difficult. Labour must pay urgent attention to these tasks as well as
analysing its failure to capture more than a handful of Conservative seats, and
losing some to them.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
</h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The
new electoral situation </span></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Prior to the election, Labour had an in-built
advantage, all of which has not only gone, but the advantage has swung the
other way to the Conservatives, and that is before any boundary changes, which
they will no doubt push through prior to the next election.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">There
are three main reasons for this reversal of fortunes. Firstly Scotland, where
Labour’s huge loss of 40 seats contrasted with the Conservative’s nil loss; the
huge decline in the Lib-Dem vote meaning that the opportunity for tactical
voting, either by Labour to keep the Conservatives out or by the Lib-Dems to keep
Labour in has largely disappeared; and the swing to the Conservatives in their
marginal seats meaning that they are less marginal.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Several
commentators have pointed to the huge challenge that Labour faces here, and of
the necessity of winning back votes from the Conservatives if Labour is to win
in 2020. This is strictly not true, as a combination of votes lost to the SNP,
UKIP, the Greens and of new voters and previous non voters could suffice, but
it is unlikely that all of that could happen simultaneously, and there is no
longer a big Lib-Dem vote to be inherited.</span></div>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">How
voters saw Labour </span></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">There have been a number of surveys on this, most of which
have highlighted similar concerns. The most important were concern over
Labour’s past and future handling of the economy, immigration, too generous
welfare, control by the SNP and Miliband’s credibility as leader. Anti
aspiration and anti business were lesser factors, as was austerity, about which
there has been an interesting debate. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">It
is hardly surprising that Labour is viewed poorly on the economy, as its
biggest mistake was not to defend its record in government prior to 2010 and
allowing the myth that the deficit was Labour’s fault to become widely
believed. Not having put forward a coherent alternative to austerity policies means
there is little support for something that is not policy, which is not the same
as support for austerity. The problem with the ’immigration problem’ is that it
can embrace much, from racist opposition to any non white immigration since the
1940s to justifiable concern with pressure on local services caused by migrant
European workers. Here and on <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>welfare,
myths abound, but Labour’s rather desperate pronouncements on these issues
prior to the election indicate that<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>much
work is needed here.</span></div>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">UKIP
and the Greens</span></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Both, predictably, did very well, despite ending up with only one
MP apiece. The Greens, thanks to the Lib-Dem implosion have probably secured
lasting extra support, now at 4% although clearly at Labour’s expense. In most
of the seats lost to the Conservatives, the Green vote was higher than the
margin of loss. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">But
it is UKIP that is now the most significant extra force. The failure to even
win a seat for Farage highlights the injustice of our electoral system and may
well serve to boost pressure for the adoption of some form of PR, and UKIP are
likely to remain strong at least up to the forthcoming referendum. Thereafter
it is, assuming a by no means certain win for remaining in, partly a question
of how the Conservatives position themselves, but it is difficult to see UKIP
sustaining its momentum,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>although its appeal
now goes well beyond the EU to cover immigration and nostalgia for the whole
gamut of reactionary prejudice. The decline of UKIP would help the
Conservatives most, but Labour as well, although it would make it harder for
Labour to win overall.</span></div>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Scotland </span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">As indicated above, this now effectively constitutes a separate electoral
system, about which much has been written, which I do not intend to add to,
except to say that without a significant number of Scottish MPs Labour’s task
is much harder. With the SNP having firmly established itself as the dominant
Scottish party there can be no assumption that, in the short run at least, those
seats will be won back.</span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></h4>
<h4 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The
pollsters </span></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">They got it wrong again, more badly than at any time since 1992. To
be fair, it was only Labour and Conservative that they got <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>badly out, by three points too many for Labour
and the same too few for the Conservatives, thus enabling a majority government
to narrowly emerge, and experts on a hung parliament to go back to their ivory
towers. Investigation into the reasons for this error are ongoing, with not
much evidence of a late swing over Scotland, nor of ‘Shy’ Conservatives (i.e.
those deliberately lying), but some evidence of turnout by Labour being down
for those indicating their intention to vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">This
brief summary of what happened on May7th has not touched on the wider and more
important issues that will determine Labour’s future. Can Labour win on the
basis of a populist social democracy now being promoted by Jeremy Corbyn here and
elsewhere in Europe? Or is a reheated Blairism the only way back to power? Is our
unjust electoral system a barrier to change, and is PR the only way forward?
Did Labour lose because of a number of factors which can be changed, or is its
plight part of the crisis of social democracy afflicting similar parties in
Europe.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Such
questions and others will be debated in the coming period, but in order to move
forward we must have a clear idea of what actually happened.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">For
those interested in further reading, I list some of the main sources below:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Touchstone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>TUC Polling.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Ipsos
Mori<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>How Britain voted in 2015</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">P.
Kellner<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You Gov<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>How Britain really voted.</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">J.
Curtice<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>IPPR <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>A
defeat to reckon with</i>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">A.
Harrop<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fabians<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <i> </i></span><i>The mountain to climb</i>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Smith
Institute <i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Red Alert. Why Labour lost</i>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">UK
Polling report.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i>This article was written for <a href="http://www.chartist.org.uk/magazine/">Chartist magazine</a>. </i></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-64871761408348845472015-08-14T08:52:00.000+01:002015-08-14T08:54:00.813+01:00Why I am supporting Jeremy Corbyn - by Mike Hedges AM<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Jeremy gives
hope to both the party and the country. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">I have
always wondered how the First World War generals could have been so stupid
trying the same tactic time after time. Yet more of what failed in 2010 and
2015 a form of austerity light is considered by some the solution next time. If
it fails in 2020 we can always try it again in 2025. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">You win elections when you give the electorate
hope. When they think you are on their side. Labour lost in 1959 and in 2015 because
we were not prepared to differentiate ourselves from the Tories. We are the
party that stands up for the poor, the down trodden and exploited. We are the
party of the ordinary workers and their families not of the casino capitalists
of the city of London.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">I want to
debunk two myths. Firstly is that you keep the last election vote and add to
it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Remember the
last election, the experts, the leadership, the planners had it all worked out.
All we need to do to win is add the disillusioned Liberal Democrat to our 2010
voters and we would win. According to electoral calculus 7 % of the electorate
who voted Lib Dem in 2010 voted Labour in 2015 so we should have won or at
least come a close second.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">But 2% of
2010 Labour voters voted SNP, 1% voted UKIP, 2% voted Tory and 1% voted Green. If
we had held on to that vote we would have polled 36.4% of the vote to the
Conservatives 36.9%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">We cannot
take our voters for granted and try and gain some conservative ones by moving to
the right. Some people have said we lost due to lazy Labour voters not voting. It
is my view we lost because too many ex Labour voters could not see how we would
make their lives better. Why voting Labour would make a difference.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">The second
myth is that you win elections from the centre ground. If that was true the Lib
Dems would win every election Although the Liberal Democrats most successful
elections have been when they moved to the left.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Was the
Attlee government in 1945 in the centre ground?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Were the
Wilson Governments in the centre ground?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Was Thatcher
in the centre ground?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Is Cameron
in the centre ground?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #141823; font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">We in Wales, when led by Rhodri Morgan, set
clear red water between us and the Labour Party in London and we won.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">What are my constituents telling me</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">Statements
on my Facebook feed from my constituents include:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #141823; font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">“If he (Jeremy) <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>gets elected as leader of the Labour Party I
will come back from the Greens the only other party that leans to the left and
in support of the people.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #141823; font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">“I believe it needs to change people’s
minds and lead rather than take the populist view. That's what it was good at
back when it started. Make fairness, caring and looking after the worker and
the disadvantaged an electable ticket rather than trying to be a less
conservative Tory party”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #141823; font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">“I feel the Labour Party has forgotten its
roots and those who started it. It was from trade unionists we came!! For a
Labour Party to abstain from voting on welfare rights is completely
diabolical.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="color: #141823; font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Finally, we win when we offer the electorate
hope, when we appear economically competent, when we appear a party of
principle - and that is why I am
supporting Jeremy Corbyn for leader.</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-47804654139577781852015-07-03T23:25:00.000+01:002015-07-03T23:26:26.407+01:00Corbyn for Leader! by Nick Davies<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">Thanks to the
last-minute entry into the Labour leadership race of Jeremy Corbyn, what began as
a tedious <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>political sideshow by the party
that lost the election now has the potential to become an overdue debate about
the kind of country we want to live in.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">If the first big
lie of the 21<sup>st</sup> century was Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, a
yarn spun by the US aided and abetted by New Labour and the second was that too
much public spending by a Labour government caused the financial crash, a lie which
the three establishment candidates refuse to refute, the third is surely that
Labour lost the 2015 general election because it was too anti-business and
frightened away the middle class.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">That first lie is
why politicians have lost the trust of the people, and remains a burden borne
by even those Labour politicians who did not support the war, the second lie
provided the Tories with the pretext to finish off Thatcher’s attack on the
public sector and the welfare state. The third lie, easily disproved by the
data, available to those who wish to find it, and by the experiences of Labour
activists who were trying to get the vote out, was repeated <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ad nauseam</i> by the initial candidates to
replace Ed Miliband. Taking their cue from the New Labour figures that sniped
at and undermined Ed Miliband right up to Election Day, they ruthlessly
established the narrative that what caused Labour’s defeat was Miliband’s
partial, flawed, but real attempt to distance Labour from the Blair-Brown years
and to tackle inequality. Attempts to be more like the Tories presented a
surreal spectacle to those voters, particularly Labour voters, who had not
turned out, or as protest, voted for UKIP, because they thought Labour and the
Tories were too much the same.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">Liz Kendall
represents the distilled essence of Blairism: the abandonment of any
social-democratic project and the capturing of the political process by the
interests of business. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Her
pronouncements of the need to ‘balance the books’ are indistinguishable from
the economically illiterate prescriptions of Osborne. There’s precious little
of the political tightrope walking, known in polite circles as triangulation; her
campaign is not that complicated! Who needs trade union backing when you’ve got
the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sun</i>? It’s missing the point,
however, to label her as a Tory, as some do. In a way, she’s worse than that. She
genuinely believes that what she advocates is what a Labour government should
be doing. In that sense her campaign is a product of the political degeneration
and the hollowing out of the Labour party since the 1990s, although no doubt
she’d prefer to be called the ‘modernising ‘candidate</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">Cooper and
Burnham, on the contrary, are busy triangulating themselves into a frenzy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both are incapable of uttering a sentence
which does not contain ‘aspirational’, code for ‘rich’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and not, it appears, the millions of peoples’
aspirations to have a home they can afford, a route into a secure employment
and good public services. Tacking right and then ‘left’, both admit that all is
not well with the world, while frantically back-pedalling from their former
leader’s modest attempts to do something about it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both have been booed at hustings when they
have refused to commit themselves to opposition of the benefit cap, a policy so
open to challenge (large benefit payments are made to buy-to let-landlords and to
top up the earnings of those on poverty pay) that failure to oppose it is an
admission of political cowardice; no wonder Frankie Boyle referred to
candidates talking like hostages! <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">Corbyn’s entry has
changed the dynamics of the contest. Having an opponent who says what he
believes is an obvious challenge to the ‘triangulators’. Burnham, in
particular, must be tying himself in knots. On the one hand it<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>relieves him of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the burden of being<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘Red Andy’, but on the other, it limits his chance
to use his<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>undoubted communication
skills to hone his well-used ‘northern man of the people’ routine, to convince
socialist in the party, with an nod and a wink, that he’s really one of them. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">More fundamentally
Corbyn’s entry means that that the discussion ceases to the one about the
details of ‘austerity lite’. Corbyn is opposed to austerity, he supports
council housing, public services a living wage, rights at work and trade
unions; he is for the defence of the environment and he has a longstanding
opposition to nuclear weapons and the Iraq war. Add into the mix the fact that
non-members can pay £3 to become supporters and we could have less a leadership
campaign than a movement. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">The ‘Overton
Window’ is a term sometimes used to describe the range of ideas which, in a
democracy, are regarded as electorally acceptable. The window may be pushed one
way or the other according to circumstance. In the UK, the Overton Window has
over the past 35 years been pushed to the right by the Tories, their outriders
and sections of the media, notably News International. When in power New Labour
did nothing to move it back to the left. By 2015 the three main Westminster
parties had converged on political terrain which 40 years ago would have been
the property of free market zealots and cranks: the privatisation of water and
fuel, the assumption that a roof over your head meant getting onto the ‘housing
ladder’ and a lifetime of debt, zero hours contracts, academy schools run by
big business, and so on. None of it really works, of course, except for those
who get rich as a result. The opprobrium heaped on Ed Miliband was the result
of his modest attempt to take on this tyranny of what Tariq Ali has called the “extreme
centre”. The same will no doubt be visited on Jeremy Corbyn, if he<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has any chance of winning.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">The media, which
generally inhabits the same Overton Window as the politicians, is already
having difficulties in dealing with Corbyn’s campaign, as shown by the inane
question on Channel 4 News:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘Was he to
the left of Karl Marx?’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not that
the journalists are thick, or, necessarily, even consciously biased, it’s just
that many of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>those who entered the
profession in the last 20 years lack the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>personal or professional hinterland to be able to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>understand properly<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>what Corbyn’s campaign is all about.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">Most of the
population doesn’t share the elite’s Overton Window. It is consistently to the
left of what were until May 7th the major parties on issues such as council
house building and the renationalisation of rail, energy and water. It is true
that those same people have concerns about immigration and many of them ,
apparently, support the benefit cap, because no Labour politician has had the
guts to take on the right on the those issues. Corbyn is doing that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">Can he win? He’s
been regarded by the media and the New Labour establishment as<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a quirky addition to the contest, albeit a
quaint throwback to our recent past, but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>when people actually start listening to him, his life could be made very
difficult indeed. Others, New Labour-loving<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>media grandees such as John Rentoul. Martin Kettle and the increasingly
poisonous Dan Hodges are queuing up to make it clear that he cannot, or must
not win. Some Labour activists are saying they like him but<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>he won’t win an election. Should their choice
be dictated by ‘head or heart’? </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">It’s a false dichotomy.
A party standing on an anti-austerity ticket did rather well in Scotland on
May, 7th and only by opposing austerity and outflanking the SNP from the left
can Labour win again in Scotland. As for the rest of the UK, campaigning on the
basis of ‘austerity lite’ <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘or ‘cutting <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>too far too fast’ wasn’t exactly a sure-fire election winner,
was it?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: small;">If he does win, it
won’t be ‘business as usual’ in the Labour party – or anywhere else, for that
matter – and, even if he doesn’t, we may have another Scotland on our hands: a movement
out of the control of the professional politicians and the uncomprehending
media. Let’s hope so.</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07523984478436228342noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6133929355900201783.post-61164749773578927342015-06-19T08:35:00.001+01:002015-06-19T08:37:54.895+01:00The 2015 General Election in Wales by Peter Rowlands<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The
election results in Wales were dire! The swing to the Tories was greater in
Wales (1.1%) than that to Labour (0.6%), unlike in England where it was 1.4% to
3.6%, but seven out of nine English regions swung to Labour, leaving Wales
alongside only two English regions that swung to the Tories, East Midlands and
South West.The swing to UKIP in Wales (11.2%) was greater than that in England
(10.7%), and there were huge votes for UKIP in most of the old mining valleys
seats which must have mainly derived from Labour as there was only a limited
Tory vote in most of these seats. </span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The two Welsh Labour seats lost to the Tories,
Gower and Vale of Clwyd, were the worst losses in the UK, excepting
Scotland, in terms of swing required,
and compare to seven such losses in England, where Labour gained ten seats from
the Tories but none in Wales, including the highly marginal Cardiff North which
should have fallen but actually swung back to the Tories, as did the other two
Labour targets, Carmarthen South and Vale of Glamorgan.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">Plaid
only marginally increased their vote,from 11% to 12%, and failed to take Ceredigion or Ynys Mon, but
achieved a large swing in Rhondda and more modest swings in other valleys
seats, but failed in Llanelli where there was a swing to Labour. But this was one of the few positive
signs for Labour. Apart from the predictable swings against the Lib-Dems in
Swansea West and hugely in Cardiff Central, Labour’s only gain in Wales, there
were only five seats which registered a swing from Tory to Labour, only two of
these, both in Cardiff, with swings of over about 2%. But elsewhere, shockingly, there were
swings from Labour to Tory in 16 seats, six of them above 2%, and from Labour
to UKIP in six traditional, mainly valleys seats in South Wales.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The
Greens did relatively poorly, gaining only 2.6% of the vote against 4.2% in
England, although this is still a huge increase on their previous vote.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">The
far left got their usual miniscule vote, with TUSC getting an average of 0.4%
in 12 seats, worse than the UK average of 0.6%. However, the SLP (the Arthur
Scargill Fan Club) scored relatively well, gaining an average of 1.3% in seven
seats, the only seats, curiously, that they contested in the whole UK. </span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">It
is difficult to pinpoint why Labour did so badly in Wales. Poor organisation at
some levels could undoubtedly have been a factor, but there is no clear proof
that Wales was significantly worse than England in this respect, or the Tories
better. In two seats that I have some detailed knowledge of and where we did
badly, local organisation was good, although so was that of the Tories. There
are two factors that do not apply in England, the Welsh Government and a
nationalist party, but the vote for the latter was only marginally up, although
Tory attacks on the Welsh Government’s record on health and education may have
had some effect. Perhaps a general complacency, a feeling that Wales was
essentially a Labour country, was to blame. If so, then it is misplaced. While
the South Wales valleys remain predominantly Labour, despite the rise of Plaid
and UKIP there, there has always been significant support for the Tories and
Lib-Dems elsewhere, and while that is no longer so for the latter, at least for the moment, the Tory threat in Wales must be taken very
seriously.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: small;">It is an immediate threat, because of next
year’s Welsh Assembly elections, when on the basis of the recent results Labour
would lose four seats to the Tories and probably be seeking a coalition again
with Plaid, although the precedent was not an altogether happy one as some would point out. However, it could be
dependent on Plaid continuing on its left wing path. If the election proves unfruitful for them next year there
could be a reversion to a more centrist, cultural nationalist orientation where
a ’rainbow coalition’ with other parties is no longer seen as a less acceptable
option than one with Labour. That would in part depend on how many seats UKIP
gain, which will probably be at least four, all regional seats, at the expense
of the Lib-Dems who on present showing stand to be completely obliterated. Plaid would probably balk at any coalition
which included UKIP, and it is unlikely that a majority could otherwise be
realised, However, to forestall such a
possibility Labour must concentrate on shoring up its defences against a Tory
party in Wales that is hungry for more blood.</span></div>
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